【行业研报】BCG+下一波数字货币的风险管理_市场营销策划_重点报告20230802_doc.docx

ManagingRiskfortheNextWaveofDigita1CurrenciesJu1y2023ByBernhardKronfe11ner,StevenA1exanderKok,JamesMackintosh,andChristianN.Schmid(BCG);MikeBa1estrino(BCapita1);andSamirGhosh(FaIconX)BQQ+SBCapita1+FUCOMXManagingRiskfortheNextWaveofDigita1CurrenciesThedigita1-currencymarketp1acehasbeeninturmoi1sincethecurrentucryptowinterj,beganinmid-2023.Ho1dingshavebeenbreached,fraudu1entandi11icitschemeshavebeenrevea1ed,anddigita1-currencyofferingshave1ostva1ue,makingtherisksmoreevident.(Foranoverviewofwhat1edtothecryptowinter,andofwherethingsstandnow,seethesidebaritDeFiSummer,CryptoWinter,andtheFuture.")RecentactionsbytheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)havefurtherensuredthattherisksofdigita1currencywi11betopofmindforinvestorsforsometimetocome.Atthesametime,digita1currenciesareheretostay.Theirprimaryfunctiontoho1dandtransferva1uewithoutacentra1authorityva1idatingandprocessingtransactions一W川continuetobeattractivetoinvestorsandotherfinancia1servicescustomers.Inaddition,therapidpaceofinnovationcontinues.Financia1institutionshaveadutytoprovidethesame1eve1ofasset-specificofferings,capabi1ities,andguardrai1sthattheydowithothercomparab1eassetc1asses.Thispresentsfinancia1institutionswithaseriesofstrategiccha11enges.Chiefriskofficers(CROs)shou1dbeaskingtwoquestions.First,whatarethemostimportantnewrisksassociatedwithdigita1currencies?Second,howtobestmanagethoserisks?Forboththesequestions,financia1institutionsneedtopayattentiontothefactorsuniquetodigita1currenciesrequiringnewpractices,methods,andwaysofthinking.Inthisartic1e,weaimtodescribetherisksthatcomewithsupportingandofferingdigita1currencies,aswe11asappropriatetoo1sandmethodstomitigatethem.As1ongasc1ientsdemandaccesstodigita1currencies,frombasiconestostab1ecoinsandevencentra1bankdigita1currencies(CBDCs),theserisk-mitigationtoo1sshou1dbecomepartoftheoperatingmode1ofmostbanksandfinancia1servicesorganizations.RisksAssociatedwithDigita1CurrenciesWhi1edigita1currenciesareavai1ab1einavarietyofformsandf1avors(seethesidebar“AGuidetoDigita1-CurrencyProductsandServices"),theycana11beassessedagainstcommonriskcategoriesre1evanttofinancia1institutions.Exhibit1showsthesecategoriesarrangedrough1yinorderofthesourceofriskfrombroadmarketforcestoparticu1aractorsinthedigita1-currencyecosystemtogapsinthefinancia1institution'sownrangeofcapabi1ities.DeFiSummer,CryptoWinter,andtheFutureManyinvestorsacquireddigita1-currencyho1dingsduringthesteepupswingof*,DeFisummer,whichbeganinAugust2023.AstheCOVID-19pandemicsurged,sodidtheva1ueofdecentra1izedfinance(DeFi)offerings.(Seetheexhibit.)1ikemanyspecu1ativeinvestorsbeforethem,someassetmanagersmadedigita1-currency-re1atedbetswithoutfundamenta1risk-managementpracticesinp1ace.DeFisummerendedinNovember2023.1atercametheco11apseofthestab1ecoinTerrainMay2023,fo11owedinJunebythebankruptcyoftheSingapore-basedhedgefundThreeArrowsCapita1.ThencamefurtherinterestratehikesfromtheFedera1ReserveandtheFTXbankruptcy.Eachtime,therisksbecamec1earer,andmoreinvestorspu11edback.ByMay2023,thecurrentcryptowinterwasfu11yunderway,markedbyasteepdropinva1ues.(Theterm,cryptowinter”makesreferenceto41Winteriscoming,',themottoofoneofthewarringhousesintheTVseriesGameofThrones.Themottorefersnoton1ytotheharshnessofwintersinthehouse'scontinentbuta1sototheinevitabi1ityofdifficu1ttimes.)Thedigita1-asseteconomyisnowinaPeriodofregrouping.Ana1ysisindicatesahigh1eve1ofresearchanddeve1opment,most1ytakingp1acequiet1ywithininnovativecompanies.Asina11bearmarkets,thisiswhencasua1investorsandsubstandardp1ayersdepart,anddigita1-assetdeve1operspreparetheirnextwaveofofferings.Deve1opingariskstrategyfordigita1currencies,inc1udingthoseyoua1readyownoroversee,doesnotmeanignoringthedownturn.Itdoes,however,meancontinuingtoservecustomerneeds,ba1ancingtheva1ueofexposureindigita1currenciesagainsttherisksandnecessaryprecautions.800kTerra11apseExhibit-CryptoMarketPricesvs.Deve1operActivity,2014-2023Bitcoin(in$)70,065,00060,055,00050,00045,040,035,030,00025,020,015,010,0005,00Jan.2014Jan.2015Jan.2016Jan.2017Jan.2018Jan.2019Jan.2023Jan.2023Jan.2023Jan.2023Deve1operactivity-Bitcoin(in$)Sources:DataStatista;CoinMarketCap;BCGana1ysis.Thedigita1-asseteconomyisnowinaperiodofregrouping.AGuidetoDigita1-CurrencyProductsandServicesMainProductsDigita1Currencies.Thesevirtua1currenciesBitcoin,Ethereum1andmanymorearecommonfinancia1productsthata111everageb1ockchaintechno1ogy.Manyofthemhaveva1ueprimari1yasspecu1ativeinvestmentvehic1es,whichincreasestheirvo1ati1ityandthusaffectstheirriskprofi1e.Somedigita1-currencyofferings("coins”)havenon-specu1a-tiveva1ue.Theyareuti1itarian,withusecasesthatinc1udecarrenta1sandthetracingofgoodsa1ongasupp1ychain.Becausedigita1currenciesareon1yminima11yregu1ated,ahigh1eve1ofriskmonitoringandmitigationisconsideredbestpracticefora11ofthem,eventhosewithprimari1yuti1itarianva1ue.Digita1currenciesrequireasystemofverificationtova1idatetheintegrityofeachnewcoin.Theydothisby1inkingit