【市场报告】美联储-企业减税与制造业劳动力份额下降（英）-2023.8_市场营销策划_重点报告202.docx

CorporateTaxCutsandtheDec1ineintheManufacturing1aborShareBan§Kaymak*ImmoSchott+August29,2023AbstractWedocumentastrongempirica1connectionbetweencorporatetaxationandthemanufacturing1aborshare,bothintheUSandacrossOECDcountries.Ourestimatesassociate30to60percentoftheobserveddec1inein1aborshareswiththefa11incorporatetaxation.Usinganequi1ibriummode1ofanindustrywherefirmsdifferintheircapita1intensities,weshowthat1owercorporatetaxratesreducethe1aborsharebyraisingthemarketshareofcapita1-intensivefirms.Thetaxe1asticityofthe1aborsharedependsonthejointdistributionof1aborintensitiesandva1ueaddedatthemicro1eve1.Giventheempirica1distributionintheUSmanufacturingsector,ourquantitativeana1ysissuggeststhatcorporatetaxcutsexp1ainasignificantpartofthedec1ineinthemanufacturing1aborsharesincethe1950s.Theshiftawayfromtraditiona11y1arge,1abor-intensiveproductionunitsraisedtheconcentrationofmarketsharesandreducedtheconcentrationofemp1oyment.JE1c1assification:E25,H32,1i1160Keywords:1aborshareofincome,corporatetaxation,industrydynamics,firmsizedistributionDepartmentOfEconomicResearch,Federa1ReserveBankofC1eve1and.E-mai1:barkaymaktDivisionofInternationa1Finance,BoardofGovernorsoftheFedera1ReserveSystem.Emai1:im-moschott1Introduction1abor,sshareofincomehasbeenfa11ingacrossthewor1d,withthemoststrikingdec1inesobservedinindustriesthathavetraditiona11ybeencapita1intensive,suchasmanufacturingormining(see,forinstance,E1sbyeta1.(2013)orKarabarbounisandNeiman(2013).InthispaperWeshowthatthedec1ineofthe1aborsharecoincideswithadownwardtrendincorporatetaxratesandprovideaframeworktomeasurethemargina1contributionof1owercorporatetaxratestothedec1ineofthe1aborshare.Thedownwardtrendinthe1aborshareofincomeintheUSisshowninFigure1.Since1953theaggregate1aborsharefe11byapproximate1y7percentagepoints(pp),fromaround65percentto58percent.Thisisshownasthedashedred1ine,p1ottedagainsttherighty-axisinpane1(a).Thisdec1ineisdrivenprimari1ybythemanufacturingsector.Manufacturing1aborsharemeasuresfromtheCensusandtheBEAareshownastheso1idb1ackandgrey1inesinthesamefigure.Whi1ethetwosourcessomewhatdisagreeonthe1eve1ofthemanufacturing1aborshare,theybothshowdec1inesofover20ppbetweenthe1950sand2016.'Becauseoftheshiftinthesectora1compositionofUSproductionawayfrommanufacturingtowardre1ative1y1abor-intensivesectors,suchasservices,thedec1ineintheaggregate1aborsharehasbeenmuted.Figure 1: Corporatetaxationand1abor,sshareofincomeintheUnitedStates(a)1aborshares(%)(b)Corporatetaxrates(%)Pane1(a)showsthehead1ineaggregate1aborsharemeasurefromtheUSBureauof1aborStatistics(righty-axis),togetherwithmanufacturing1aborsharesfromtheUSCensusandtheNationa1IncomeandProductAccountsprovidedbytheBureauofEconomicAna1ysis(BEA)(1efty-axis).Wecomp1ementthehistorica1BEAdatawithBEAK1EMSdatafrom1986onward.Theaverageeffectivecox>ra1etaxrateinPane1(b)istheratiooffedera1corporatetaxrevenuetocorporateincome.Sources:FRED,TaxPo1icyCenter,andGrave11e(2004).1InOn1ineAppendixB,Wecompare1aborsharemeasuresfromavarietyofdatasourcesanddiscussthedifferences.Thetota1dec1ineinthemanufacturing1aborsharevariesbetween20to29percentagepointsdependingonthesourceanddefinition.Overthesametimeperiod,businesstaxationhasfa11en.Theaveragecorporatetaxrate-measuredastheratiooffedera1corporatetaxrevenuetocorporateincome-showsasteadydec1inefrom46percentinthe1950sto16percentin2016(Figure1-b).Thesecu1ardec1ineovertheyearsistheresu1tofvarioustaxreformsthatreducedtheeffectivemargina1taxrate(MTR)eitherbydirect1y1oweringthestatutorytaxrateoncorporationsorbyexpandingregu1atoryexemptionsanda11owances,suchasthedepreciationa11owanceortheinvestmenttaxcredit.Basedonthestatutoryprovisions,Grave11e(2004)estimatesthattheeffectiveMTRoncorporateincomehaddec1inedfromover50percentinthe1950sto27percentby2003.Re1ativetothehead1inestatutoryrate,theseaverageandeffectivemargina1ratesbettercapturevariousprovisionsandexemptionsinthetaxcodeaswe11aseffortstominimizetaxob1igations.AccordingtoIRSstatistics,C-corporationsrepresentedabout72%ofbusinessreceiptsonaveragebetween1980and2015.ThefactthatC-corporationscovera1argeshareofoutputintheeconomyisourmainmotivationforfocusingoncorporatetaxpo1icy.However,asimi1artrendisseenintaxratesonpass-throughentitiesduetothesecu1arfa11intopmargina1incometaxratessincethe1950sandmajortaxreformsduringthe1980s.TheNBER,staxca1cu1atorTAXSIMestimatesthattheMTRfe11from46percentto35percentforpartnershipsandfrom36percentto23percentforso1e-proprietorsbetween1979and2008.2ThesepatternsarenotuniquetotheUnitedStates.Asweshowbe1ow,therehavebeen1argedecreasesin1aborsharesamongOECDcountries,especia11yinmanufacturing,wherethe1aborsharedec1inedby0.34ppperyearonaveragebetween1981and2007.Throughoutthisperiod,corporatetaxratesinthosecountriesdroppedby19pponaverage.Moreimportant1y,wefindthatthe1aborsharefe11bymoreincountrieswith1argerdec1inesintheircorporatetaxrate,withacorre1ationcoefficientof0.71inoursamp1e.Usingtheco-variationbetweenthesetrendswithincountriesandovertime,weestimatethat30to60pe