【酒行业报告】食品饮料行业周报：白酒继续分化大众品持续改善-20230108-华鑫证券_市场营销策.docx

证券研究报告华鑫证券himPrmrtMtfWmgT1N白酒继续分化，大众品持续改善推荐（维持）一一食品饮料行业周报投资要点行业相对表现表现1M3M12M食品饮料（申万）5.33.3-9.4沪深3000.54.6-17.4分析师：孙山山S1050521110005SUnSS分析师：何宇航S1050522090002heyh1市场表现（%）食品饮料沪深300资料来源：Wind,华答证券研究相关研究1、食品饮料行业周报：白酒回款如期进行，大众品缓慢复苏2023-01-022、食品饮料行业周报：经销商大会传递信心，大众品库存环比改善2023-12-253、食品饮料行业策略报告：曙光已现，守望复苏202372-22行业研究I一周新闻速递行业新闻：1）泸州452亿白酒（食品）项目签约。2）15家酒企上榜市值500强。公司新闻：1）i茅台将投放29999瓶虎茅。2）古井集团2023目标200亿。3）口子窖暂不计划引进国资入股。I投资观点当前北上广深渝等疫情感染已过高峰值，我们认为消费者心态将逐步发生积极变化，最快有望在春节前后实现部分复苏。我们维持此前观点不变，坚持认为疫后板块复苏顺序如下：白酒啤酒休闲食品=软饮料速冻食品调味品乳制品O白酒板块：本周主要酒企进入春节回款周期，我们跟踪主要酒企回款进度可以发现高端酒地产酒次高端，和我们此前推荐的顺序高端酒地产酒次高端基本相吻合。现阶段我们重点推荐4+4产品矩阵，即高端酒茅五泸+汾酒+地产酒四杰（今世缘、洋河股份、金种子酒、顺鑫农业）。大众品板块：主要子板块从12月中旬开始进入春节备货状态，现阶段我们看好速冻食品、休闲食品等，重点推荐3+3+3产品矩阵，即速冻三雄（安井食品、三全食品、千味央厨）、休闲食品三剑客（盐津铺子、甘源食品、劲仔食品）、预期差三杰（绝味食品、紫燕食品、中炬高新）。维持食品饮料行业“推荐”投资评级。I风险提示疫情波动风险；宏观经济波动风险；推荐公司业绩不及预期的风险；行业竞争风险；食品安全风险；行业政策变动风险；消费税或生产风险；原材料价格波动风险。重点关注公司及盈利预测公司代码名称2023/1/7股价EPSPE投资评级2023E2023E2024E2023E2023E2024E600519.SH贵州茅台1803.7749.8458.6668.4836.1930.7526.34买入000858.SZ五粮液190.466.918.069.3227.5623.6320.44买入000568.SZ泸州老窖234.577.118.7410.5932.9926.8422.15买入600809.SH山西汾酒287.506.438.4510.8544.7134.0226.50买入002304.SZ洋河股份166.646.377.639.0826.1621.8418.35买入000799.SZ酒鬼酒138.773.604.866.1938.5528.5522.42买入600702.SH舍得酒业161.804.425.597.2736.6128.9422.26买入600779.SH水井坊83.702.893.594.3828.9623.3119.11买入000596.SZ古井贡酒291.455.777.289.0850.5140.0332.10买入603369.SH今世缘54.821.972.493.0927.8322.0217.74买入603589.SH口子窖59.093.023.473.9419.5717.0315.00买入603198.SH迎驾贡酒67.922.132.683.2831.8925.3420.71买入600199.SH金种子酒27.16-0.100.110.39-271.60246.9169.64买入603919.SH金徽酒26.380.670.931.1439.3728.3723.14买入600197.SH伊力特23.950.460.630.8652.0738.0227.85买入600559.SH老白干酒28.240.780.810.9336.2134.8630.37买入603288.SH海天味业79.301.611.912.2449.2541.5235.40买入603027.SH千禾味业20.480.370.700.8255.3529.2624.98买入603317.SH天味食品27.050.420.550.6964.4049.1839.20买入600872.SH中炬高新36.350.961.121.2937.8632.4628.18买入002507.SZ涪陵榨菜25.641.141.321.5222.4919.4216.87买入600305.SH恒顺醋业11.880.170.240.2969.8849.5040.97买入603755.SH日辰股份37.010.741.051.3650.0135.2527.21买入603170.SH宝立食品28.520.490.680.8558.2041.9433.55买入300999.SZ金龙鱼43.880.791.081.3655.5440.6332.26买入300908.SZ仲景食品35.201.221.471.7128.8523.9520.58买入600298.SH安琪酵母42.741.672.112.5425.5920.2616.83买入300755.SZ华致酒行30.351.232.012.8124.6715.1010.80买入605499.SH东鹤饮料176.003.484.295.2650.5741.0333.46买入603711.SH香飘飘14.301.061.1813.4912.12买入605337.SH李子园22.351.051.301.6121.2917.1913.88买入600132.SH重庆啤酒125.842.713.384.0046.4437.2331.46买入600600.SH青岛啤酒106.302.573.133.6541.3633.9629.12买入603345.SH安井食品162.004.105.467.0439.5129.6723.01买入603517.SH绝味食品57.720.600.911.3396.2063.4343.40买入603057.SH紫燕食品30.510.721.071.3642.3828.5122.43买入002847.SZ盐津铺子104.172.463.093.7742.3533.7127.63买入603719.SH良品铺子35.300.991.261.5835.6628.0222.34买入002991.SZ甘源食品73.451.992.583.5036.9128.4720.99买入002557.SZ洽洽食品47.781.992.222.5624.0121.5218.66买入003000.SZ劲仔食品11.690.290.370.4540.3131.5925.98买入605338.SH巴比食品31.141.001.211.5131.1425.7420.62买入300973.SZ立高食品94.511.221.962.5677.4748.2236.92买入002216.SZ三全食品17.600.941.081.2418.7216.3014.19买入600882.SH妙可蓝多32.870.530.700.9562.0246.9634.60买入001215.SZ千味央厨66.831.231.632.0954.3341.0031.98买入605089.SH味知香70.401.471.832.2647.8938.4731.15买入002330.SZ得利斯7.470.110.160.2467.9146.6931.13买入603043.SH广州酒室25.201.071.301.5423.5519.3816.36买入002956.SZ西麦食品14.890.450.560.6833.0926.5921.90买入002570.SZ贝因美5.110.090.220.5656.7823.239.13买入600887.SH伊利股份31.501.371.621.9222.9919.4416.41买入603156.SH养元饮品21.501.201.481.8017.9214.5311.94买入002183.SZ怡亚通6.260.260.330.4024.0818.9715.65买入300094.SZ国联水产5.780.100.170.2557.8034.0023.12买入002726.SZ龙大美食8.980.070.150.21128.2959.8742.76买入002946.SZ新乳业12.690.4B0.650.8326.4419.5215.29买入603076.SH乐惠国际37.350.741.372.2550.4727.2616.60买入300791.SZ