【行业研报】世界银行-坦桑尼亚结构变化和国内移民的福利效应（英）-2023.7_市场营销策划_重点报.docx

TheWe1fareEffectsofStructura1ChangeandInterna1MigrationinTanzaniaAkuffoAmankwah,1RichmondAttah-Ankomah,2Goodie1Char1esMoshi,3RobSwinke1s4'CorrespondingAuthor-1ivingStandardsMeasurementStudy,Deve1opmentDataGroup,Wor1dBank,WashingtonDC,emai1-aamankwahwor1dbank.org2InstituteofStatistica1,Socia1andEconomicResearch,UniversityofGhana,1egon,Ghana3UniversityofDodoma,Tanzania4PovertyandEquityG1oba1Practice,Wor1dBank,Abidjan,Coted,IvoireKeywords:structura1change,interna1migration,we1fare,cross-sector1abormovement,pane1data,Tanzania.WBThematictopics:1aborMobi1ity,InCIUSiVeGrowth.JE1Codes:131,012,O55,J21,J61.1. IntroductionThe1eve1sofeconomicgrowthanddeve1opmentobservedacrosscountriesappeartobeinextricab1y1inkedtothechangesinthestructureofproductionovertimewherethenatureofthischangedeterminesitstransformativeimpactongrowthanddeve1opment(McMi11aneta1,2014;Rodriketa1.,2016).Thetransformativeimpactisrea1izedwhenthechangesarecharacterizedbyshiftsinoutputandemp1oymentfrom1ow-productivityactivitiestohigh-productivityandski11-intensiveactivities(Diao&McMi11an,2018).Theexperiencesofcountriesinthedeve1opedwor1dshowthatatransformativestructura1changetendstofo11owacertaintrajectoryinwhichoutputandemp1oymentfirstshiftfromagricu1turetoindustryandthentoservices.However,structura1changeinmanydeve1opingandemergingeconomies,especia11ythoseinSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),hasbeencharacterizedbya1eapfroggingofindustrywithoutputandemp1oymentshiftingfromagricu1turetotheservicesector(whichisoftendominatedbyinforma1activities)aswe11asdifferentmigrationandurbanizationpatterns(ChristiaensenandTodo2014;DoroshandThur1ow,2017).Consequent1y,structura1changeinthesecountrieshasgenera11ynotyie1dedsignificantbenefitsintermsofgrowthanddeve1opment,andinsomecases,ithasratherhurteconomicgrowth(McMi11an&Rodrik,2011;McMi11aneta1,2013;Rodriketa1.2016).Theseobserveddifferencesinthepathofstructura1changebetweendeve1opedanddeve1opingeconomiesmaybeassociatedwithmanyfactorsthatdrivethenatureofstructura1change.The1ewistwosectormode1providesanimportantinsightintothemechanism(thatis,rea1wagegapbetweenhighproductivityareaswhichareusua11y1ocatedinurbanareasandthe1owproductivityareaswhichareusua11yfoundinrura1areas)bywhichatransformativestructura1changeoccursandsomeofitskeydrivers(Go11in2014).Thewagegapref1ectsproductivitydifferentia1sbetweenactivityareas,whichhavebeenfoundtobeanimportantdriverofstructura1changeanditsgrowtheffect(Paci&Pig1iaru,1997;Diao&McMi11an,2018),evenamongactivitiesthatarec1ose1yre1ated(Fagerberg,2000).A1so,the1ewistwosectormode1emphasizestheimportanceofrura1-urbanmigrationinfaci1itatingatransformativestructura1change.StudiesbyDeBrauweta1.(2013),ChristiaensenandTodo(2014)andInge1aereeta1(2018)a1soprovideempirica1evidenceontheimportanceofmigrationtostructura1changeinSSA.Inge1aereeta1(2018)showspecifica11ythatmigrationfromrura1communitiestosecondarytownsisimportantintheprocessofstructura1changebecauseitconstitutesthecrucia1bridgebetweensemi-subsistenceagricu1tureandthecapita1isticcity.Otherinsightsfromsevera1extensionsofthe1ewismode1andattemptsataddressingits1imitationshavepointedtootherfactorsaffectingthenatureofstructura1changeanditsgrowthanddeve1opmentimpactindeve1opingcountrycontexts(seeforexamp1e,Chen,Jefferson,&Zhang,2011;Fan,Zhang,&Robinson,2003Acemog1u&Guerrieri,2008).Forexamp1es,the1iteraturehasemphasizedsectora1differencesinfactorproportions(Osmani1990;Acemog1u&Guerrieri,2008),1imitedinvestmentinski11saccumu1ationandinstitutiona1capabi1ities(Rodriketa1.,2016),constraintsimposedbypo1itica1sett1ements(Oseieta1.2023),aswe11asstructura1rigiditiesandmisa11ocation(Go11in2014;Go11inandRogerson2014)asimportantdeterminantsofthenatureofstructura1changeindeve1opingcountries.Structura1changehasimp1icationsonsevera1dimensionsofdeve1opmentinc1udingpovertyreduction(seeHasaneta1.2013;ChristiaensenandKaminski2015;BaymuandSen2017;Sen2017;Atta-AnkomahandOsei2023).Hence,understandingthenuancesofitsdynamicsandimpactfromamicroperspectiveisasimportantasthemacroeconomictrendsandimpact(1agakosandShu,2023).However,theexistingempirica11iteratureespecia11ythoseonSSAhasmain1yfocusedontrendsandpatternsinmacroeconomicandaggregatewe1fareindicators,1arge1yprovidingadescriptiveana1ysisofthenatureofstructura1changeanditspotentia1we1fareimp1ications(seeforexamp1estudiessuchasMcMi11an&Rodrik,2011;ChristiaesenandTodo2014;OseiandJedwab,2016).Otherstudies,butoutsideSSA,haveusedstate-1eve1datawithincountriestoexp1orethere1ationshipbetweenmovementofworkersbetweeneconomicsectorsandpovertyreduction.Forexamp1e,usingstate-1eve1datainIndia,Hasaneta1(2013)showthatmovementofworkersfrom1owtohighproductivityareasisanimportantchanne1throughwhichincreasesinaggregateproductivityresu1tinpovertyreduction.Daviseta1(2017)poo1edcrosssectiona1(nationa1)househo1dsurveysfromse1ectedAfricancountriestoexp1orepatternsofhouseho1dincomesourcesinSSAandfoundthatwhenagro-c1imaticconditionsarefavorab1e,farmingremainstheoccupationofchoiceformostrura1househo1dsintheSSAcountriesstudied.Ama