【行业报告】国际清算银行-从地板上爬起来（英）-2023.5_市场营销策划_2023年市场报告6月第.docx

OBISBISWorkingPapersNoI1OOGettingupfromthef1oorbyC1audioBorioMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentMay2023JE1c1assification:E42fE43,E52,E58.Keywords:monetarypo1icyoperatingprocedures,centra1bankba1ancesheets,abundantvsscarcereservessystems.BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationa1Sett1ements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepub1ishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopica1interestandaretechnica1incharacter.Theviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessari1ytheviewsoftheBIS.Thispub1icationisavai1ab1eontheBISwebsite(©BankforInternationa1Sett1ements2023.A11rightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortrans1atedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1020-0959(print)ISSN1682-7678(on1ine)Gettingupfromthef1oor1C1audioBorioHeadoftheBISMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentAbstractSincetheGreatFinancia1Crisis,agrowingnumberofcentra1bankshaveadoptedabundantreservessystems("f1oors")tosettheinterestrate.However,therearegoodgroundstoreturntoscarcereservesystems("corridors").First,thecostsoff1oorsystemstakeconsiderab1etimetoappear,are1ike1ytogrowandtendtobe1essvisib1e.Theycanbeattributedtoindependentfeaturesoftheenvironmentwhich,infact,aretoasignificantextentaconsequenceofthesystemsthemse1ves.Second,formuchthesamereasons,thereisariskofgross1yoverestimatingtheimp1ementationdifficu1tiesofcorridorsystems,inparticu1artheinstabi1ityofthedemandforreserves.Third,thereisnoneedtowaitforthecentra1bankba1ancesheettoshrinkbeforemovinginthatdirection:foragivensize,thecentra1bankcanadjustthecompositionofits1iabi1ities.U1timate1y,thedesignoftheimp1ementationsystemshou1dfo11owfromastrategicviewofthecentra1bank'sba1ancesheet.Ausefu1guidingprincip1eisthatitssizeshou1dbeassma11aspossib1e,anditscompositionasrisk1essaspossib1e,inawaythatiscompatib1ewiththecentra1bankfu1fi11ingitsmandateeffective1y.Keywords:monetarypo1icyoperatingprocedures,centra1bankba1ancesheets,abundantvsscarcereservessystems.JE1codes:E42,E43,E52zE58.Thispaperwaspub1ishedasSUERFPoIiCyNOteno311.Itisanextendedversionofthekeynotespeechde1iveredattheworkshop"Beyondunconventiona1po1icy:Imp1icationsforcentra1banks,operationa1frameworks",hostedbytheNether1andsBankinAmsterdamon10March2023.1amverygratefu1toAerdtHoubenforinvitingmetogivethatspeech.Iwou1da1so1iketothankMortenBech,U1richBindsei11StijnC1aessens,PitiDisyatatRobertMcCauIey1Bi11Ne1son,FrancescoPwadia,AndreasSchrimpf,MasaakiShirakawaandNiko1aTarashevaswe11asworkshopparticipantsforcommentsandveryva1uab1ediscussions.Theviewsexpressedaremyownandnotnecessari1ythoseoftheBIS.IntroductionTheGreatFinancia1Crisis(GFC)hasbeenawatershedforthewayinwhichcentra1bankssettheshort-terminterestrateonaday-to-daybasis.Thecrisishas1itera11yupendedtheseoperatingprocedures.Isthechangedesirab1eorshou1ditbereversed?Thequestionmayappearinconsequentia1,at1eastatfirstsight.Aftera11,whyshou1ditmakeabigdifference?A11thatmatters,itcou1dbeargued,isatwhat1eve1therateisset,nothowitisset.Indeed,whi1ethingshavechangedsomewhatinrecentyears,akeeninterestinoperatingproceduresremainsgenera11y1imitedtocentra1bankersandthemarketparticipantsmostdirect1yconcerned,particu1ar1ythoseactiveinmoneymarkets.This1imitedinterest,whi1eunderstandab1e,isregrettab1e.Foroperatingproceduresshed1ightonthegreatpowerthatcentra1bankswie1d,aswe11asonthesourceofthatpowerandonits1imits(Borio(1997),Moreover,theya1sohavebroaderimp1icationsforthefunctioningofmoneyandevencapita1markets,forhowmonetarypo1icyspreadsitsinf1uencethroughthefinancia1system,forcentra1bankemergencyinterventionsattimesoffinancia1stressandfortheoptima1sizeandstructureofthecentra1bank,sba1ancesheet.Againstthisbackdrop,thispaperassessesthepost-GFCsea-changeinoperatingprocedures.Itdoessofromtheperspectiveofsomeonewhohasstudiedtheminthepastandseescurrentdeve1opmentswithamixofsurpriseandsomediscomfort.Myhopeisthattheana1ysiswi11makeitc1earthatthediscomfortisnotjustamatterofunjustifiednosta1gia.Morespecifica11y,thepaperexaminesthere1ativemeritsofabundantreservessystems(ARS)andscarcereservessystems(SRS)inimp1ementinginterestratepo1icy.Thisiswhathastypica11ybeenreferredto,somewhatinaccurate1y,asthere1ativemeritsoff1oorversuscorridorsystems.Thatsaid,theana1ysiswi11a1soaddressmorebrief1ythebiggerandc1ose1yre1ateddebateoverthesizeandcompositionofthecentra1bank,sba1ancesheet.ThekeytakeawayisthatitisworthgivingseriousthoughttoreturningtoSRS-,gettingupfromthef1oor,asitwere.Thefirstsectionsummarisesthepost-GFCsea-change.Thesecondexp1ainsitmightbedesirab1etoreversecourse.Thethirdconsidersthebroaderquestionofthecentra1bank,sba1ancesheet.Theconc1usionsummarisesthekeymessages.Thesea-changeThecommonfeaturesofpre-GFCoperatingprocedureswereveryc1ear.Theoverridingobjectivewastomakethepo1icystanceeffectivewhi1eatthesametime1eavingaminima1imprintonthefinancia1system.Thisgaverisetothree,tight1yre1ated,characteristics.2First,therewasasing1eoperatingtargetattheveryshortendofthecurve,a1mostinvariab1yanovernightrate.3Thisrate,ineffect,c