【行业报告】全球发展中心-海运业脱碳：推动印尼能源公正转型的机遇（英）-2023.6_市场营销策划_.docx

CGDCENTERhUNG1OBA1DEVE1OPMENTCGDNOTEJUNE2023DecarbonizingtheMaritimeIndustry:AnOpportunitytoFurtherIndonesia,sJustEnergyTransitionAnnikaSei1erTheraceisontodecarbonizetheenergysectorinIndonesia.InNovember2023.thegovernmentOfIndonesiaandtheInternationa1PartnersGroup(IPG)11aunchedtheirJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP).Aspartofthepartnership,Indonesiacommittedtoraisetheshareofrenewab1esinitspowergenerationmixfromitscurrent1eve1of19percentto34percentby2030.Thecountrya1socommittedtoachievinganear1ypeakingofcarbonemissionsandadvancingitsnet-zeroemissioncommitmentbyadecadefrom2060to2050.InreturnforIndonesiaincreasedpo1icyambitions,theIPGinconjunctionwith1eadingfinancia1institutionsp1edgedtosupportthecountrywithaninitia1amountof$20bi11ion,ha1fofwhichwi11comefromtheprivatesector.(MinistryofFinanceofJapan,2023)Indonesia'sJETPhasreceivedconsiderab1eattentionasa1eadingtestcaseforhowdonors,providersofofficia1finance,andtheprivatesectorcanpartnerwith1ow-andmidd1e-incomecountriestoreduceemissionswhi1epromotingdeve1opmentprogress.Sofar,mostofthefocusinIndOnesia'sJETPhasbeenoneffortstoreducethesupp1yofcarbon-intensivepowerbyrefinancingcoa1-firedpowerp1antstoretirethemear1yandrep1acethemwithrenewab1es.Butthisstrategya1onemaynotde1iverthespeedandsca1eofthetransitionrequiredasitre1ieson1argeamountsofgrantandconcessiona1funding,whichmaybedifficu1ttosecure.Effortstoboostdemandforrenewab1e-basedenergydeservemoreattention.Onesucheffortisparticu1ar1ypromisingingeneratingsynergiesforIndonesia's1ow-carbondeve1opmentgoa1s.DecarbonizingtheshippingindustryFiveyearsafteradoptingitsinitia1strategyonreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromships,theInternationa1MaritimeOrganization(IMO)isacce1eratingitseffortstodecarbonizetheshippingsector,thewor1d,sseventh-1argestcarbonemitter.Nextmonth,theIMOisexpectedtoadoptamoreambitiousstrategytocutcarbonemissionsfromthesector,whoseGHGemissionsareprojectedtoincreaseupto50percentby2050comparedto20181eve1sifnewregu1ationsaren,tadopted(IMO,2023).IfIMOfu11ya1ignsthenewstrategywiththe1.5c1imategoa1,itcou1dtriggermajorinvestmentsina1ternativebunkerfue1s(thefue1usedbymarinevesse1s)thatproducevery1ow,andu1timate1yzero,GHGemissionsduringtheirproduction,distribution,anduse.Itcou1da1sopromptnewinvestmentsinzero-emissionvesse1sthatcanoperateonsucha1ternativefue1s.Zero-and1ow-emissionbunkerfue1supp1yinfrastructureinvestmentsaccountfornear1y90percentoftheestimated$1.4to$1.9tri11ionneededtofu11ydecarbonizetheshippingindustryby2050(GMF,2023;UMAS,2023).Whi1eresearchanddeve1opmentisongoing,studiesidentifiedgreenammoniaasthemostpromisingzero-emissionfue1optionfor1argerships,fo11owedbygreenhydrogen.2Comparedtootherpotentia11ow-andzero-emissionbunkerfue1s,greenammoniaisassessedtohavethe1argestcostreductionpotentia1overtimeandsuperiorstoragecharacteristicscomparedtogreenhydrogen.Itssca1abi1itymakesitamorefavorab1efue1comparedto1ow-emissionbiofue1s,particu1ar1ysuitedfor1ong-distanceshippingroutes.Moreover,ammoniaasaferti1izerisinternationa11ytradedandportsareexperiencedinhand1ingandstoringit.According1y,annua1demandforgreenammoniaforshippingisprojectedtoincreasebyupto950mi11ionmetrictonsby2050andrepresenta$5tri11ionmarket(McKinsey2023,Wor1dBank,2023,UMAS,2023).TheG1oba1MaritimeForumestimatesthatbetween18and20exajou1eOfa1ternativezero-emissionfue1wou1dberequiredtofu11ydecarbonizetheshippingsector(GMF,2023).Basedonthisprojection,weestimatethatby2030,between70GWand100GWofadditiona1renewab1epowerandgreenhydrogen/ammoniaproductioncapacitywou1dneedtobeinsta11ed,providedgreenammoniabecomesthepreferreda1ternativezero-emissionfue1;by2050,thatestimaterisestobetween800GWand1,200GW.Toachievefu11decarbonizationby2050andthenecessary1arge-sca1edep1oymentofa1ternativefue1sbetween2030and2040,rapidprogressmustbemadebetweennowand2030andat1east5percentoftheshippingfue1mixmustbemadeupof1ow-orzero-emissionfue1s(GMF,2023).OpportunitiesandsynergiesforgreenshippinginIndonesiaThemaritimeindustryisofstrategicimportanceforIndonesia,the1argestarchipe1agiccountryinthewor1d.Indonesiaiscomposedofover17,000is1andsandis1ocateda1ongtwoofthewor1d,sbusiesttraderoutes:theStraitofMa1acca,andtheSundaStrait.In2023jIndonesiaregisteredatrade-to-GDPratioof39.5percent;itsyear-on-yearmerchandisetradegrewbyabout40percentandaccountedfor91percentofIndonesiarStota1trade.From2017-2023,Indonesia'smerchandiseexportsgrewby11.8percent,fasterthantheAsiaPacificregion,s9.6percentannua1averagegrowthduringthesameperiod(ESCAP,2023).Indonesia'scontainerthroughputin2023amountedto14,025,449TEU(twentyfootequiva1entunitameasurementofcargocapacity).Thisis1argerthanthatofFranceandtheUKcombined(UNCTDSTT,2023).Indonesiahas11internationa1containerports,97bunkeringports,and141oi1termina1s.Morethan900,000workersareengagedinbothinternationa1anddomesticshipping(IMO,2023).Indonesia'sGHGemissionsfromshippingin2018areestimatedtorepresentabout3.7percentofg1oba1tota1shippingemissions,87percentofwhichareemittedbybu1kcarriers,tankers,containerships,andsma11er