hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown（英文版）.docx

hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown(英文版)KEVINP.COYNEANDJONATHANW.WITTERTheMcKinseyQuarter1y,2002Number2WhentheBassfami1yofTexas,inresponsetoamarginca11,so1ditsstakeinDisney,thatcompany,sstockactua11yfe11by8percentCEOsa1wayswanttoknowhowthemarketwi11reacttonewstrategiesandothermajordecisions.Wi11acompany'sshareho1dersagreewithaparticu1armove,orwi11theyfai1tounderstandthemotivesbehinditandpunishthestockaccording1y?Andwhatcanmanagementdotoimprovetheoutcome?Tryingtopredictstockpricemovementsisnecessary,ofcourse.Aftera11,whenstockpricesfa11,thecostofborrowingandofissuingnewequitycanrise,andfa11ingstockpricescanbothundercuttheconfidenceofemp1oyeesandcustomersandhandicapmergers.Unfortunate1y,however,mostofthesepredictionsarenomorethanroughguesses,becausethetoo1sCEOsusetomakethemarenotveryaccurate.Netpresentva1ue(NPV)maybeusefu1forestimatingthe1ong-termintrinsicva1ueofshares,butitisfamous1yunre1iab1eforpredictingtheirpriceoverthenextfewquarters.Conversationswithsamp1egroupsofinvestorsandana1ysts,nductedbythecompanyorbyinvestmentbankers,arenomorere1iab1eforgaugingmarketreactions.Butexecutivescandramatica11yimprovetheaccuracyoftheirpredictions.Byadoptingamoresystematic,rigorousapproach,corporate1eaderscan1earntounderstandindividua1investorsasthorough1yasmanycompaniesnowunderstandeachoftheirtopcommercia1customers.Itispossib1etoknowsuchcustomerswe11becausethereareon1ysomanyofthem.Equa11y,on1yafinitenumberofinvestorsrea11ymatterwhenitcomestopredictingstockpricemovements.Armedwiththesenewandso1idinsightsabouthowcritica1investorsbehaveinspecificsituations,executivescanmakestrategicdecisionsinadifferent1ight.Knowingwhatmakescrucia1investorsbuy,se11,orho1dthecompany'sstocka11owsCEOstoca1cu1atewhatitssharepricemightbeafteranannouncementandtofactorthisca1cu1ationintotheirstrategicandoperatingdecisions.Toheadoffshort-termse11ing,acompanycou1dmanagethetiming,pace,orsequencingofstrategicannouncements.Itcou1dintroduceanewmanagementteambeforeannouncinganacquisition.Itcou1da1sotestanimportantnewproductinse1ectedmarketsbeforethenationwidero11out.Howwi11investorsreacttoamergerannouncementandwhatwi11theresu1tingsharepricemeanforadea1?Howmightaspin-offfareinthemarket?Doesthecompanyneedtopreparethemarketortoconsideracarve-outinstead?ACEOevenhasthechoiceofforgingaheadinthefaceofadversepredictions,usingtheinformationtomanagetheexpectationsoftheboard.Anexecutivemay,forinstance,considerbo1dstrategieseventhoughtheycou1dpushsomecritica1investorstose11thecompany'sstock.THEFEWTHATMATTERItshou1dcomeasnosurprisethatbigtradescansignificant1ymovetheneed1eonacompany'sstockprice.WhentheBassfami1yofTexas,forexamp1e,so1ditsstakeinDisney,inSeptember2001,inresponsetoamarginca11,Disney,sstockfe11by8percent.Buttypica11y,short-termchangesinacompany'sstockpricearen'ttheresu1tofasing1ebigtrade.Forthe50companieswhosequarter1ystockpricevariationswestudied,weconsistent1yfoundthatthemajorityofuniquechangesineachcompany'sstockpriceresu1tedfromthenetpurchasesandsa1esofthestockbya1imitednumberofinvestorswhotradedin1argequantities.(By"uniquechanges,"wemeanthoseoccurringre1ativetotherestofthemarket.Inotherwords,theydonotinc1udepricebumpsorfa11sthatcoincidedwiththeovera11movementsofthemarketorthesector.)A1thoughthenumberofcrucia1investorsinacompanyrangedfromasfewas30to(moretypica11y)asmanyas100,ineachcasethissetofactorshadadramaticimpactonshareprices.Inthecompanieswestudied,wecou1dattributefrom60to80percentofa11uniquechanges,quarterbyquarter,tothenettradingimba1ancesoftheseinvestors.EXHIBIT1Afew1argeinvestorsdrivestockpricesAna1ysisofweeWytradingvo1umeof1argeEuropeanindustria1mpany(disguised)8QJds'cdXoOW6ueqo3n6cnAM151050-5-10-15-20-150-100-50050100150200250300WeeWytradingimba1anceamong100mostcritica1investors,percentr2=thePfoPon)OnorpercentageOfvananceexp1anedbyaref1ressx1Pointsrepresenteveryweek(JUrM2yearperiodinWhiefIstockpricecanged>2%re1ativetomarketindexandchangewasn'treversedduringthefo1towinoweek.Ca1cu1atedasnetpurchasesnetsharesrepaid-sa1es-netsharesborrowedSourceInterviewsMcKinseyana1ysisWhyshou1dthesizeoftheimba1ancebetweenasksandbidsmatter?Atanyinstant,themarketconsistsofaseriesofgraduatedofferstobuy(inotherwords,Ahasanoutstandingoffertobuy11000sharesat$60,andBofferstobuy2,000sharesat$59,875)aswe11asasimi1arsetofofferstose11(Cofferstose111,500sharesat$60.50,andDofferstose111,000sharesat$60.75).Asa1eismadeon1ywhenonesidesurrendersacrossthisbid-askspread(thatis,Aagreestobuy1,000ofC,ssharesat$60.50).Whenbuyersco11ective1ywant1argeamountsofastock,theyhavetokeepsurrenderingtosuccessive1ayersofse11ersptheoffercurve.Se11erswhoun1oad1argenumbersofsharesmovea1ongthecurveintheoppositedirection.Ofcourse,thecorre1ationbetweenthebuyingorse11ingof1argeinvestors,ontheonehand,andthepriceofastock,ontheother,canneverbeperfect.Sma11erinvestorssometimesactinsyncandoverpower1argerho1dersashappenedtwiceintwoyearswiththesharesoftheEuropeanindustria1company.News,rumors,andwor1deventscansp