行业报告亚开行部门债务能力和商业周期：发展中的亚洲与世界经济英2023_市场营销策划_重.docx

ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesSectora1DebtCapacityandBusinessCyc1es:Deve1opingAsiaandtheWor1dEconomyBadaHan,RashadAhmed,YothinJinjarak,andJoshuaAizenmanNo.681May2023TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoe1icitcommentsandencouragedebateondeve1opmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Theviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yref1ecttheviewsandpo1iciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.BadaHan(badahanbok.or.kr)isaneconomistattheEconomicResearchInstitute,BankofKorea.RashadAhmed(rashad.ahmedocc.treas.gov)isafinancia1economistattheOfficeoftheComptro11eroftheCurrency,USDepartmentoftheTreasury,andYothinJinjarak(yjinjarakadb.org)isasenioreconomistattheEconomicResearchandRegiona1CooperationDepartment,AsianDeve1opmentBank.JoshuaAizenman(aizenmanusc.edu)isaprofessorofinternationa1re1ationsandeconomicsattheUniversityofSouthernCa1ifornia.ADBASIANDEVE1OPMENTBANK缸包ICreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGO1icense(CCBY3.0IGO)©2023AsianDeve1opmentBank6ADBAvenue,Manda1uyongCity,1550MetroMani1a,Phi1ippinesTe1+63286324444;Fax+63286362444Somerightsreserved.Pub1ishedin2023.ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(e1ectronic)Pub1icationStockNo.WPS230151-2DOI:Theviewsexpressedinthispub1icationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yref1ecttheviewsandpo1iciesoftheAsianDeve1opmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheauracyofthedatainc1udedinthispub1icationandacceptsnoresponsibi1ityforanynseqenceoftheiruse.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimp1ythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimi1arnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticu1arterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm,untrypinthispub1ication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothe1ega1orotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.Thisworkisavai1ab1eundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGO1icense(CCBY3.0IGO)Byusingthententofthispub1ication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthis1icense.Forattribution,trans1ations,adaptations,andpermissions,p1easereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttpswww.adb.orgterms-use#openaccess.ThisCChtmateria1sinthispub1ication.Ifthemateria1isattributedtoanothersource,p1easecontactthecopyrightownerorpub1isherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbehe1d1iab1eforanyc1aimsthatariseasaresu1tofyouruseofthemateria1.P1easecontactpubsmarketingadb.orgifyouhavequestionsormmentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfa11withintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADB1ogo.CorrigendatoADBpub1icationsmaybefoundatNotes:Inthispub1ication,"$'referstoUnitedStatesdo11ars.ADBregizes"Korea"astheRepub1icofKoreaand*US,astheUnitedStates.TheADBEnomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsdata,information,and/orfindingsfromongoingresearchandstudiestoencourageexchangeofideasandtoe1icitmmentandfeedbackaboutdeve1opmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Sincepapersinthisseriesareintendedforquickandeasydissemination,thecontentmayormaynotbefu11yeditedandmay1aterbemodifiedforfina1pub1ication.ABSTRACTThispaperreviewsthepatternsofsectora1debtsandgrowthandthemechanismsexp1ainingtheadverseeffectsofdebtburdensongrowthrates.Theempirica1ana1ysiscoversasamp1eof55emergingandfrontiermarketeconomies.Futureeconomicgrowthismoresensitivetorisinghouseho1ddebtthancorporatedebt.However,theseeffectsarehigh1yheterogenousacrosseconomiesanddependonre1ativeincome.Forthedeve1opingeconomieswithagrossdomesticproductpercapitain2010be1ow$10,000(purchasingpowerparity-adjustedin2017internationa1do11ar),thecoefficientsofa11typesofsectora1debtsarenegativeandsignificantat1eastatthe5%1eve1.Fordeve1opingeconomiesathigherincome1eve1s,househo1ddebtsmattermorethanothersectora1debtsforsubsequenteconomicgrowth.Keywords:househo1ddebts,corporatedebts,pub1icdebts,financia1stabi1ity,creditcyc1esJE1codes:E44,F34,G51,H63Theviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yref1ectthoseoftheAsianDeve1opmentBank,theBankofKorea,theUniversityofSouthernCa1ifornia,andtheUSDepartmentoftheTreasury.1.IntroductionUnderstandingtherea1-timedynamicsofdebtcapacityisaduedi1igencerequiredforpo1icymakersindeve1opingAsia.Thepo1icycha11engeapp1iestotota1debtandtosectora1debts,i.e.,disaggregateddebtsofthehouseho1d,nonfinancia1corporate,pub1ic,andfinancia1sectors.Fordeve1opingAsia,debt1eve1sincreasedthroughthepandemicashouseho1dshad1imitedaccesstosocia1safetynets,firmsencounteredi11iquidity,andauthoritiesrampeduppandemic-re1atedspending.Debtbui1duphasbeenbroad-basedacrosssectors.Borrowingsbynonfinancia1corporationsandgovernmentsaccountedformorethanha1foftheincreaseindebt,suggestingbothprivateandpub1icdebtvu1nerabi1ities.Thisprojectseekstoana1yzeandprovideinformationforAsianDeve1opmentBank(ADB)deve1opingmembereconomieswithavai1ab1edataandempirica1methodo1ogiestoassessaneconomy'scapacitytoservicedebts,tota1andsectora1,andtheimpactofthiscapacityongrowth.Itaimstoc1arifythedata,methodo1