行业报告IMF通货膨胀对公共财政的影响英20235_市场营销策划_重点报告202305.docx

INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDTheEffectsofInf1ationonPub1icFinancesDanie1Garcia-MaciaWP/23/93IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023MAYWP/23/93©2023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperFisca1AffairsDepartmentTheEffectsofInf1ationonPub1icFinancesPreparedbyDanie1Garcia-MaciaThemainresu1tsinthispaperarepresentedinChapter2oftheApri12023Fisca1Monitor,1edbyMarcosPop1awski-RibeiroandCar1osGona1ves,undertheguidanceofVitorGaspar,Pao1oMauro,andPau1oMedas.Thepapera1sobenefitedfrommmentsbySakaiAndo1MyrvinAnthony.A1bertoBehar,O1ivierB1anchard,YongquanCao.DevrimDemire1,KarenDynan1O1amideHarrison,O1ivierJeanne,JeongDae1ee,JamesMcHugh,PrachiMishra,AnhNguyen,Nikhi1Pate1,AdrianPera1ta-A1va,RobertoPerre11i1AdamPosen,JohnRa1yea,andotherseminarparticipants.ZhonghaoWeiprovidedoutstandingresearchassistance.Dataandcodesareavai1ab1euponrequest.AuthorizedfordistributionbyPau1oMedasMay2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Doesinf1ationhe1pimprovepub1icfinances?Thispaperdocumentsthedynamicresponsesoffisca1variab1estoaninf1ationshock,usingbothquarter1yandannua1pane1dataforabroadsetofeconomies.Inf1ationshocksareestimatedtoimprovefisca1ba1ancestemporari1y,asnomina1revenuestrackinf1ationc1ose1y,whi1enomina1primaryexpenditurestake1ongertocatchup.Inf1ationspikesa1so1eadtoapersistentreductionindebttoGDPratios,bothduetotheprimaryba1anceimprovementandthenomina1GDPdenominatorchanne1.However,debton1yfa11swithinf1ationsurprisesrisesininf1ationexpectationsdonotimprovedebtdynamics,suggesting1imitstodebtdebasementstrategies.Theresu1tsarerobusttousingvariousinf1ationmeasuresandinstrumenta1variab1es.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Garcia-Macia,Danie1.2023.uTheEffectsofInf1ationonPub1icFinances*'IMFWorkingPaper2023/93,Internationa1MonetaryFund,Washington,DC.JE1C1assificationNumbers:E31,E6,H6Keywords:Inf1ation;fisca1ba1ance;pub1icdebtAuthor,sE-Mai1Address:dgarciamaciaimf.orgWORKINGPAPERSTheEffectsofInf1ationonPub1icFinancesPreparedbyDanie1Garcia-MaciaContentsI.Introduction3.Empirica1Approach5III. Data6IV. Resu1ts8V. Robustness16VI. Conc1usions18References20FIGURES1. Initia1GainsinFisca1Ba1ancesfromCPIInf1ationShocks,AEs,1999:Q1-2019:Q4112. Initia1GainsinFisca1Ba1ancesfromCPIInf1ationShocks,Sub-Items,AEs11999:Q1-2019:Q4123. Responsetoa1PercentagePointGDPDef1atorGrowthShock,1962-2019134. Responsetoa1PercentagePointGDPDef1atorGrowthShock,AEsvsEMs,1962-2019145. Responsetoa1PercentagePointGDPDef1atorShock,byFXregime,1962-2019146. DebtReactiontoSurprisevs.ExpectedGDPDef1atorGrowthSpikes,1992-2019157. ResponseofDebttoa1PercentagePointGDPDef1atorShock,AEs168. ResponseofOvera11Ba1ancetoa1PercentagePointGDPDef1atorShock,1962-201917TAB1ES1. 1istofCountriesintheQuarter1yandAnnua1Samp1es72. SummaryStatistics83. IVFirst-StageRegressionResu1ts,CPIInf1ation,1999-201994. ImpactofCPIInf1ationSpikesinInitia1Quarter,1999:Q1-2019:Q4115. ImpactofCPIInf1ationSpikesontheOvera11Ba1anceintheInitia1Quarter,1999:Q1-2019:Q4176. Impactofa1PercentagePointInf1ationSpikeonDebtbyYear4,1962-201918I. IntroductionThesharpinf1ationupsurgeaffectingmostcountriessince2023broughttotheforequestionsabouttheimpactsofinf1ationthroughouttheeconomy.Akeydimensionishowinf1ationaffectsfisca1sustainabi1ityandredistributesresourcesbetweenthepub1icandprivatesectors,asref1ectedinthedynamicsofgovernmentdeficitsanddebt.Intheory,inf1ationcanaffectpub1icfinancesthroughmu1tip1echanne1s(Dynan,2023,CBO,2023a).Ittendstoexpandtaxbasesinnomina1terms,boostingnomina1taxrevenue,butcana1soraisethecostofgovernmentexpenditure,mostdirect1yforbudgetitemsthatareautomatica11yindexedtoinf1ation.Moreover,theassociatedincreaseinnomina1GDPtendstoreducedeficitanddebtratios.Overtime,po1iciesmaya1soreacttoinf1ation,inc1udingthroughdiscretionaryfisca1measures(e.g.,subsidiesandtaxcutstoa11eviatecost-of-1ivingimpacts),ormonetarypo1icytightening,pushingupgovernmentborrowingcosts.Thus,inf1ationcanimpacttaxpayers,civi1servants,pensioners,beneficiariesofgovernmentprograms,governmentsupp1iers,andbondho1dersinvariousforms.Thispaperestimatestheneteffectsofinf1ationonfisca1variab1esovertime,usingpane1dataforabroadsetofeconomiesandtimeperiod.Itfindsthatinf1ationshocksimprovefisca1ba1ancestemporari1y,asnomina1revenuesrisewithinf1ationfasterthannomina1expenditures.Theya1so1eadtoapersistentreductionindebttoGDPratios,bothduetoprimaryba1anceimprovementsandnomina1GDPdenominatorincreases.However,debton1yfa11swithinf1ationsurgesthatcomeasasurprise-risesininf1ationexpectationsdonotimprovedebtdynamics.Theestimationisbas