行业报告IMF重新审视财政政策的反周期性英20234_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDRevisitingtheCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icyJoaoTovarJaIIes,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,W.Raphae11am,andRobertoPiazzaWP/23/89IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023APRWP/23/89©2023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperFisca1AffairsDepartmentRevisitingtheCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icyPreparedbyJoaoTovarJa11es,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,Raphae11am,andRobertoPiazza*AuthorizedfordistributionbyPau1oMedasApri12023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Viewsexpressedherea1sodonotrepresenttheviewsofUniversityof1isbon'sSchoo1ofEconomicsandManagement.Abstract:Thispaperprovidesanove1datasetoftime-varyingmeasuresonthedegreeofcountercyc1ica1ityoffisca1po1iciesforadvancedanddeve1opingeconomiesbetween1980and2023.Theuseoftime-varyingmeasuresoffisca1stabi1ization,withspecia1attentiontopotentia1endogenityissues,overcomesthemajor1imitationofpreviousstudiesanda111owstheana1ysistoaccountforbothcountry-specificaswe11asg1oba1factors.Thepapera1soexaminesthekeydeterminantsofcountercyc1ica1ityoffisca1po1icywithafocusonfactorsasseverecrises,informa1ity,financia1deve1opment,andgovernance.Empirica1resu1tsshowthat(i)fisca1po1icytendstobemorecounter-cyc1ica1duringseverecrisesthantypica1recessions,especia11yforadvancedeconomies;(ii)fisca1counter-cyc1ica1ityhasincreasedovertimeformanyeconomiesoverthe1asttwodecades;(iii)discretionaryandautomaticcountercyc1ica1ityarebothstronginadvancedeconomiesbutacyc1ica1(attimesprocyc1ica1)in1ow-incomecountries,(iv)fisca1countercyc1ica1ityoperatesprimari1ythroughtheexpenditurechanne1,particu1ar1yforsocia1benefits,(vi)betterfinancia1deve1opment,1argergovernmentsizeandstrongerinstitutiona1qua1ityareassociatedwith1argercountercyc1ica1effectsoffisca1po1icy.Ourresu1tsarerobusttovariousspecificationsandendogeneitychecks.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Ja11es,J.,Y.Kiendrebeogo,W.R.1am.,andR.Piazza.2023."RevisitingFisca1Countercyc1ica1ity",IMFWorkingPaperNo.23/89,Washington,D.C.JE1C1assificationNumbers:E32,E62,H50,H62Kercs.Countercyc1ica1fisca1po1icy;automaticstabi1izers;discretionaryficsa1po1icy;fisca1mu1tip1iers;stabi1izationcoefficients;1oca1projectionAuthors'E-Mai1Address:ioaoia11es：Vkiendrebeoqoimf.orq：W1amimf.oraTheauthorsaregratefu1forparticipantsoftheFADseminarattheFisca1AffairsDepartmentoftheInternationa1MonetaryFund(IMF)forhe1pfu1commentsandsuggestions.AndrewWomerprovidedexce11entresearchassistance.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WORKINGPAPERSRevisitingtheCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icyPreparedbyJoaoJa11es,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,W.Raphae11am,andRobertoPiazzaContentsI. Introduction3II. 1iteratureReview4III. Methodo1ogica1FrameworkandData6A. Methodo1ogica1framework6B. MeasuringtheCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icy7C. DeterminantsofFisca1Countercyc1ica1ity8IV. Empirica1Resu1ts12A. Degreeoffisca1countercyc1ica1ityacrosscountriesandovertime12B. Fisca1stabi1ization:gettinggranu1aronbudgetmponents15C. Determinantsoffisca1stabi1ization16V. Conc1usions22References25Figures1. AddressingPotentia1EndogeneityinEstimatingFisca1Countercyc1ica1ityCoefficients122. ComponentsofFisca1Countercyc1ica1ity,1980-2023133. DistributionFisca1Countercyc1ica1ityCoefficientsbyIncomeGroups144. Interquarti1eRangeofTime-VaryingFisca1Countercyc1ica1ity145. Fisca1Countercyc1ica1ityin1argeCrises15Tab1es1. Overa11Fisca1Countercyc1ica1ity,1980-2023122. Countercyc1ica1PropertiesofGovernmentRevenues153. Countercyc1ica1PropertiesofGovernmentExpenditures164. KeyDeterminantsoftheCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icy,1990-2023175. DeterminantsofFisca1Stabi1izationforAdvancedEconomies,1990-2023186. DeterminantsofFisca1Stabi1izationforEmergingMarketsandDeve1opingEconomies,1990-2023197. DeterminantsofAutomaticStabi1izers,1990-2023208. DeterminantsofCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icy,RobustnesscheckwithA1ternativeSpecifications219. ASummaryontheDeterminantsofCountercyc1ica1ityofFisca1Po1icy:DistinguishingbetweenHighand1ow-DebtCountries22I. IntroductionViewsontheappropriatefisca1responsetoadverseeventshavebeenreshapedbytheexperiencegainedduringseverecrises.Beforetheg1oba1financia1crises,discretionaryfisca1responsesweredeemedtoos1oworhardtounwind(B1anchard,De1Ariccia,andMauro2010;B1inder2016),andautomaticstabi1izersbui1t-inmechanisminthebudgetthatraisesspendingorreducesrevenueco11ectionduringadverseshockswereconsideredsufficient.Duringtheunprecedentedg1oba1shockofthepandemic,po1iti