行业报告IMF企业层面的数字化与冲击韧性：财政政策的作用英20235_市场营销策划_重.docx

INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDFirm-1eve1Digita1izationandResi1iencetoShocks:Ro1eofFisca1Po1icyManabuNoseandJiroHondaWP/23/95IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023MAYWP/23/95©2023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperFisca1AffairsDepartmentFirm-1eve1Digita1izationandResi1iencetoShocks:Ro1eofFisca1Po1icyPreparedbyManabuNoseandJiroHondaTheauthorswou1d1iketothankVitorGaspar,Niko1ayGueorguiev,KatherineBaer,MarcosPop1awskiRibeiro,SebastianBeer,Sa1maKha1id,YueZhou,andIMFFisca1AffairsDepartmentseminarparticipantsforinsightfu1commentsandsuggestions.MiyokoAsaiprovidedexce11entresearchassistance.AuthorizedfordistributionbyNiko1ayGueorguievMay2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Wou1ddigita1izationatfirm1eve1strengthenfirms'resi1iencetoshocks?Andifso,cou1dfisca1po1icyp1ayanyro1etopromotefirm-1eve1digita1ization?Thispaperempirica11yexp1oresanswerstothesequestions.Basedona1oca1projectionmethod(usingtheOrbisdatacovering1.8mi11ionnon-financia1firmsfrom53countries),weestimatetheimpactsofaggregateuncertaintyshocksonfirms*sa1es,profitmargin,andemp1oyment.Thefindingssuggestthatuncertaintyshocksaffectdigita1izedand1ess-digita1izedfirmsverydifferent1y.Digita1izedfirmsweathershocksbetter,withsma11erdropsinsa1esandprofits,whi1e1ess-digita1izedonesareworseoff,with1ong-1astingscars.Thenweexaminetheimpactoffisca1interventionstopromotefirms'digita1ization,usingcross-countrypane1data(covering64countries).Theresu1tsuggeststhata1igningthetaxregimeondigita1sen/iceswithgenera1taxationprincip1esandcompetitiveprocurementru1esondigita1productscou1deffective1ysupportthepromotionoffirm-1eve1digita1ization.Overa11,orfindingspointthatfirm1eve1digita1izationwou1dhe1pstrengthenfirms'resi1iencetoashock,andfisca1interventionscanp1ayanimportantro1etopromotefirm-1eve1digita1ization.JE1C1assificationNumbers:H32,011,023Keywords:Digita1ization;Digita1divide;Fisca1po1icy;G1oba1economyAuthor'sE-Mai1Address:mnose1MFQr;ihonda1MFQraWORKINGPAPERSFirm-1eve1Digita1izationandResi1iencetoShocks:Ro1eofFisca1Po1icyPreparedbyManabuNoseandJiroHondaTheauthorswou1d1iketothankVitorGaspar,Niko1ayGueorguiev1KatherineBaer1MarcosPop1awskiRibeiro,SebastianBeer,Sa1maKha1id,YueZhou,andIMFFisca1AffairsDepartmentseminarparticipantsforinsightfu1commentsandsuggestions.MiyokoAsaiprovidedexce11entresearchassistance.ContentsG1ossary4ExecutiveSummary5I. Introduction6II. 1iteratureReview7III. Data8A. OrbisData8B. TheAggregateUncertaintyMeasure9C. Digita1izationMeasure10Country-1eve1Digita1izationIndex10Firm-1eve1Digita1izationIndex11IV. EconometricAna1ysis12A. Base1ineResu1ts13B. State-dependent1oca1ProjectionEstimation13Resu1ts14HeterogeneousEffectbySector15C. RobustnessChecks16D. HeterogeneousEffectbyInitia1Financia1Performance18V. ImpactofFisca1InterventionsonDigita1ization20VI. Conc1usions24Annex I. Samp1e26Annex II. RobustnessChecks28Annex III. RegressionTab1e:ImpactofFisca1InterventionsonDigita1ization29References30BOX1. Post-COVIDFirmDynamics:App1icationoftheResu1tsandCaseStudy19FIGURES2. TimeSeriesoftheWor1dUncertaintyIndex,1990Q1to2023Q3103. DescriptionoftheCross-countryDigita1ization104. DescriptionoftheFirm-1eve1Digita1ization125. 1oca1ProjectionRegression-Base1ineResu1ts136. 1oca1ProjectionRegression-RegimeSwitchingMode1Resu1ts157. 1oca1ProjectionRegression-HeterogeneousEffectbySector168. State-dependent1oca1ProjectionRegression-RobustnessChecks179. Zombification-DifferencebyDigita1izationandFinancia1Performance1810. Digita1izationandFisca1Restriction2211. Estimatesforthe1stand2ndQuarti1esofDTRIRanking23TAB1E1.SummaryStatistics9G1ossaryAEsAdvancedEconomiesDAITheWor1dBank'sDigita1AdoptionIndexDTRDigita1TradeRestrictivenessEIUEconomicInte11igenceUnitEMsEmergingMarketsEMDEEmergingMaketsandDeve1opmentEconomiesFTEFisca1TransparencyEva1uationGDPGrossDomesticProductGFCG1oba1Financia1CrisisICTIOTInformationandCommunicationTechno1ogyInput-OutputTab1e1ICs1ow-IncomeCountriesOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDeve1opmentSIRSusceptib1e-Infected-RemovedSMEWUISma11andMedium-sizedEnterprisesWor1dUncertaintyIndexExecutiveSummaryWou1ddigita1izationatfirm-1eve1strengthenfirms'resi1iencetoshocks?Andifso,u1dfisca1po1icyp1ayanyro1etopromotefirm-1eve1digita1ization?Thispaperempirica11yexp1oresanswerstothesequestions.Basedona1oca1projectionmethod(usingtheOrbisdatacovering1.8mi11ionnon-financia1firmsfrom53countries