国债期货分析报告.docx
一、国债期货行情105.0000104.0000103.0000102.0000101.0000100.000099.000098.0000<->- J -<44. /Vcc r r crcr17 TliozozOTOIOZOZSTOTOZOZ0T 6OOZOZST6OOZOZ9T8OOZOZTooooozozZ.TZ.OOZOZZ9ZOOZOZZ.T9OOZOZZ99OOZOZ8Tsoozoz8moozozmo&oozoz6TmoozozVOEOOZOZ8Tzoozozmo，z9ozoz6T 。，ozozW 二oozoz97.0000数据来源:Wmd资讯,整理二、国债期货市场持仓情况十债多单持仓排名十债空单持仓排名十债多单持仓占比()海迪则览卜债空单持仓占比(%)5.66263810,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000五侦多单持仓排名五债多单持仓占比（）6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001.0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005005.732519兀他 和即期货 中信网货 级河期货 宏源期货水女期货九位至单持仓排名五债空单持仓占比（）6.503019二债多单持仓排名二债多单持仓占比（） 乂他 平安期贵 “啖f期优上海东证 海通期货 银河期货二侦空单持仓排名二债空单持仓占比（）6.667304数据来源:Wind资讯,整理三、国债期货市场情况1、国内经济与政策图：外贸数据图：国内GDP60.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.00-10.0020.0030.0040.00号 GIOZS6I0ZOIOO-OZS0.8IOZZElozZOKIOZzo,二 ON60 9IOZ3.9I0ZRSIOZ9020ZIO.SIOZ80±0zmo QIOZonsofnIOZZ7Z10ZAOZIOZS.S860AI0Z3110Z二 OIOZ90610Z?5S9.001500进口全:当JJ同比7.0010.00GDP:当季同比 GDP:环比:季调整理数据来源:Wind图：消费数据图：投资数据38.0028.0018008.00Z020ZI96I0Z38I0Z620Znoz10 .二 OZZ99I0NI0.9I0ZZO-SIONIqaoz320ZIqsoz320Z320Z卜 osozV020Z10 二 oz2.0012.00 ”：二代22.0032.00固定资产投资完成拗:制造业:累计同比固定资产投资完成额:域珈设施建设投资:累计同比房地产开发投费完成拗:累计同比整理数据来源:Wind资讯,图：发电量发电量15.0010.0040 005.0030.00ruwucMHRZ020ZI0OOI0ZzoaozIlo'IOZ39I0ZI99I0ZZ9SI0ZI9SI0Z5.20loGIOZzosozI020Z6ZI0ZI9ZI0Zz。二 I0ZI。二 ION-5.0010.00图：工业增加值20.000T8L0ZS9BI0Znoz卜。K【ozZEI0Z60M0ZPO0IOZm99SI0ZLqsLOZ80&L0ZfnEIOZOELOZs9mloz:2ozZ9ZI0ZZO.ZLOZ6Q-I0Z3II0Znoz9CHH0Zn0.00-10.00-20.0015.0020.00-25.00-30.00工业增加位:当月同比数据来源:Wind资讯,整理图：耗煤量图：工程机械销量80,000 006大电力集团耗煤量70.00).0060,000 0050 0040.00s.os60 6E0Z*r0 6KozLrxroz90XE0Z80 Kszg'lozonso9rozzuNo SEOZ60 SON3±ozIl 虫 oz9040Z < f < c f80 AszEH0 二 EON50.0M.C040,0000030.0M.0020,000 0010.033.C00.03奘投机拉瓶机卮，机土机路机整理不-C 6苍小77608IGCLO&Ica一 0 810晶6O:ICNM二 0号60 9103910-0.9IC60 sl0Z3d10 sl0Z604I0ZG04I0NI04I0Z6OA一 ONSO.EIOZI9SI0Z6920ZSO.ZIOZI9ZI0Z图：国内物价数据图：制造业PMI数据2X>0150100OSO0 000.501.001.50qo.ozozZ0.020ZZLSOZtnsoz80S0Z9020Z寸 0.6L0ZZ0.6I0ZZE.BlozQlgloz§.so90,普 0ZP0,普 ozOLaoz8oaoz90S0Z寸 ONION尸PI:环比（右）PPI：同比（左）CPI"不比（右）CPI：同比 < 4： >S6I0Z90 61QZmo.GIOZZI.8I0ZSOOI0Z50 810Z8.20noznoz90 £QZmo'TQZ2.9I0Z§9T0z90 9I0Z§9TQZZTSIOZs±oz90 sl0Zmo±oz3.2as.so9CGTCZB.3RaA160 Toz86PMI财计中卜RVI SO数据来源:Wind资讯，整理2、货币信贷图:存款准备金率图：货币供应量30.0015.00数据来源:Wind资讯,整理图：社会融资总量图：新增人民币贷款40,000.0060,000.0035,000.0050,000.0030,000.0040,000.0025,000.0030,000.0020,000.0010,000.0020,000.0015,000.0010,000.005,000.00lllllllllll I lllllllrc crcrZT20N60-soz90-aozgo-gozZaON60-S0N90-sozeo-sozZEI0Z69二ON99= OZEq 二ozZSI0Z60-9I0Z90-sozeo-glozZTaoz69ST0N社会融侨总量:当月值数据来源:Wind资讯,整理3、央行操作图：公开市场净投放（周）6,欧84,800.004.0CO4,000003,300.002.CCO.CObisono-1,400.002.200X)06,000,00图：MLF净投放-4,700.005,000.00202009012020100130Z0Z9OOZOZSOOZOZPOOZOZmoozozZOOZOZIOOZOZNT6L0NmOISLOZ6Q6I0Z8020ZA96I0Z996L0NS060Zboaozm96【0N320ZI060Zog图：逆回购投放2.300.00-2.5OO.C6-3002020-1101XUO 12-013,5003,0002.SOO2.0001,5001.000500数据来源:Wind资讯,整理ill II lllll ill I ill 11 llll lllll. Il 7天 14天天 28天 天图：图：中期借贷便利（MLF）操作利率2020112020-102020-092020082020-072020062020052020-04202003中期借贷便利MLH：冷投放中期基阳贤丘3入月屏计值中朗批贷便利（MIH：冷投故中期不砒货币£个月:JK计饮中期信贷便利（MLFI将投故中期基砒依丘1年：然计值中期倡贷便利利率3个月中期值贷便利（MLF）刑率V个月"用信贷便利（MLF）:利知1什：4、短期资金面图：银行间回购加权利率图：银行间同业拆借利率3.500)3.60003.0000310002 60002.10001.60001.1000060000.500)-S> -出行间回物如杈利率：1天累行同回附加收利率：7天SHIBOR隔夜SHIBOR：1W$HI8OR:2WSHIBOR:3个 JJ极行间回购加权利率：14天银行间回购加权利率：1个月72.5082.00001500)1.00
