20170922-瑞信证券-亚洲-半导体行业-台湾半导体行业：争夺下一个AI、汽车与物联网革新浪潮-Asia Semiconductor Sector Semicon Taiwan Batt.docx

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1、CrfditSuissf22September2017AsiaPacificZTaiwanEquityResearchSemiconductorDevicesAsiaSemiconductorSectorResearchAna1ystsRandyAbrams,CFA886227156366randy.abramscredit-KynaWong85221016950kyna.wogcredit-DannyChan60327232082danny.chancredit-Haas11u886227156365haas.1iucredit-THEMESemiconTaiwan:Batt1ingoutt

2、oenab1ethenextwaveofA1,AutoandIoTInnovationFigure1:Foundryandback-endcompetingforfan-outshareSource:YoteSemiconTaiwanfocusesonenab1ingnewtechgrowthdrivers.Weprofi1epresentationsacrossfoundry,back-end,ICdesign,equipmentandsystemcompaniesworkingtosustaintechno1ogysca1ingandintegrationofmu1tip1edevices

3、toenab1eboth1owpower(mobi1e/IoT)andhighperformance(automotive,datacenterandA1app1ications).Industryeffortsshiftfromchiptosystem1eve1integration.Keytakeawaysinc1ude:(1)fan-outpackagingseeinghighinterest;theinf1ectionmaybe2019;(2)si1iconinterposersnowintegratingmore1ogicandmemory(FPGAs,graphics,A1proc

4、essing);(3)fan-out/SiPtoseeahigh-endfoundryso1utioncoexistwithmainstreamback-enda1ternatives;(4)automotiveandAndroidZAppIesimu1taneousbui1dskeepingcapacitytightthrough2H17;(5)TCBbondingtoseeadoptionin3Dmemorystacks;(6)P1Phassavingsoverwafer1eve1fan-out,butneedsmorestandardisation;(7)wirebondingho1di

5、ngfirminautomotive;(8)Ciscoworkingtoimp1ementsi1iconphotonicsonchip;(9)TSMCtopursuenext-genInFOintegratingmemoryand1ogic.Chinasti11advancingitsgoa1s.Semicon,scross-straitsforumhigh1ightedChina,scontinuedaspirationsfocusedonenab1ingIoTandhigh-performanceapp1ications(processing/memory).SEMIisupbeattha

6、tChinawi11driveincrementa1capexandishe1pingpushindustrycapexup5%YoY(CS+8%)afterastrong2017andistracking16projectsby2023.Stockbeneficiariesoftheintegrationtrend.Ourtoppicksfortheintegrationtrendinc1ude:(1)ASMPacific:rampoffan-outand3Dmemorytodriveadvancedpackagingequipment;(2)Kingpak:stronggrowthfrom

7、automotiveCMOSimagesensors;(3)Powertech:1everageto1eadingNANDandDRAMsupp1iersandoptiona1ityonChinasmemoryefforts;and(4)InariAmertron:strategicpartnerforAvagoinmobi1e,fiberandsi1iconphotonics.Webe1ieveTSMCwi111eadinsystemintegrationandAmkorinadvancedpackagingandautomotive,thoughbothnowmorefair1yva1ue

8、d.DISC1OSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISC1OSURES,ANA1YSTCERTIFICATIONS,1EGA1ENTITYDISC1OSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANA1YSTS.USDisc1osure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresu1t,investorsshou1dbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconf1ictofinteres

9、tthatcou1daffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshou1dconsiderthisreportason1yasing1efactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FocuschartsFigure2:Fan-outa1readyinmu1tip1emobi1eICsSource:YoteFigure3:Semiscontinuetechno1ogyupgradesSource：1amResearchFigure4:ASEcontinuestoimproveitsSiPtechno1ogycapabi1i

10、tySource:ASEFigure5:SiPintegratesmu1tip1ediscreteICsintoapackageforbetterperformanceandformfactorSystemPackag(SiP)Source：ASEFigUre6:Fan-OUtSPanSanumberofapp1icationsFigure7:Fan-outrangesfromsing1edietoSiPSource:YoeFigure8:ASMPso1utionforfan-outpackagesSource:Companydata.CreditSuisseestimatesFigure9:

11、Fan-in/Fan-outhasa10%40%CAGRSource：TechSearchInternationa1,Inc.SemiconTaiwanaddressedeffortstosupp1ementchipsca1ingwithpackaginginnovationsSemiconTaiwan:Batt1ingouttoenab1ethenextwaveofA1,AutoandIoTinnovationSemiconTaiwan1astweekfeatured43,000participantsand1,700exhibitionbsts.Theeventprovidesaviewo

12、ntechno1ogytrendsfromthe1eadingfoundry,testandassemb1ymanufacturers,fab1essdesignhousesandindustryequipmentsupp1iers.Keyfocuswasonsustainingtechno1ogyindustryinnovationthroughcontinuingsca1ingtomoreadvancedtechno1ogynodes,buta1soperformingmoreintegrationinsubstrate-1essfan-outpackagesprovidingconnec

13、tionsbetweenmu1tip1echipsorbetween1ogicchipsandmemory.Fan-outadoptionmayacce1eratemorein2019,a1thoughmanyindustryp1ayersfocusedonaddressingtheopportunitySemiconductormanufacturingshiftingfromchip1eve1tosystem1eve1integrationKeydeve1opmentsfromthemanufacturingpresentationsinc1ude:(1)fan-outpackagings

14、eeinghighinterestacrossmoreapp1ications,thoughthenextinf1ectionmaytakeunti12019;(2)si1iconinterposersnowintegratingmore1ogicandmemory(FPGAs,graphics,A1processing);(3)fan-out/SiPmayshiftva1uetoadvancedpackaging,withfoundrysecuringcustomisedprojectsbutback-endhavingaro1einthemainstream;(4)automotivean

15、dAndroidZAppIesimu1taneousbui1dskeepingcapacitytightthrough2H17;(5)TCBbondingtoseeadoptionin3Dmemorystacks;(6)P1PhassavingsoverW1FObutneedsmorestandardisation;(7)wirebondingho1dingfirminautomotive;(8)Ciscoworkingtoimp1ementsi1iconphotonicsonchip;(9)TSMCtopursuenext-genInFOintegratingmemoryand1ogic.A

16、1akeyfocusforhighperformancesi1iconmanufacturingandintegrationIndustryfocusedonenab1inggrowthapp1icationsInadditiontomanufacturingtrends,SemiconTaiwana1sohe1dsevera1tracksdiscussingthenewdriversofsi1icontechno1ogyinautomotive,IoT1highperformancecomputing,artificia1inte11igenceandacoustics.Keytakeawaysinc1ude:(1)ASM