【市场报告】莫卡特斯中心-2023年9月美国经济形势（英）-2023.9_市场营销策划_重点报告20.docx

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1、THEECONOMICSITUATIONSeptember2023BruceYand1eINTRODUCTIONWithjustthreemonthstogobefore2023,sbooksc1ose,recessionb1oodhoundsaresti11sniffingforthescentofthemuch-expectedFed-inducedsevereeconomics1owdown.We,veheardmuchhow1ing,butthankfu11y,recessionpredictionsofnegativegrowthinthisyears1atterha1fhaveso

2、farprovedwrong.Theout1kturnedmoreoptimisticwhentheCommerceDepartmentsfirst-quarterestimateof1.3percentrea1GDPgrowthwasrevisedupwardsignificant1yinJuneto2.0percent.1Then,in1ateJu1y,thedepartmentsfirstestimatefor2023,ssecond-quarterrea1GDPgrowthcameinatahea1thy2.4percent.Thisfigurewasthenreviseddownwa

3、rdto2.0percentonAugust30?There,snotasniffofrecessioninthosenumbers.Drivenbystrongretai1sa1esandincreasesinnonresidentia1investmentandstategovernmentspending,thesecondquartersinitia1estimatea1soinc1udedgoodnewsoninf1ation.TheFed-preferredPersona1ConsumptionExpendituresIndexgrewatjust2.6percentinthese

4、condquarter,ascomparedwiththepreviousquarters4.1percent.4Now,thepreviousweakerGDPgrowthforecastshavebeenpushedaheadtoyear-endandear1y2024,whichiswheremyrecessionestimaterestedintheJunesituationreport,anditsti11does.EventheFedera1ReserveBoardeconomistshavebecomeabitmoreoptimistic.Fo11owingtheJu1y26me

5、etingoftheFedera1OpenMarketCommitteewheninterestrateswerenudged25basispointshigher,raisingthetargetrangeto5.25-5.5percentFedChairJeromePowe11indicatedthecommitteemembersdidnotexpecttoseearecessionbutwou1d1ookforasignificants1owdown1aterthisyear.5Aftera11,therea1interestrate,whichisthenomina1targetra

6、teminusinf1ation,isnowg1owingred.3434WashingtonB1vd.,4thF1r,Ar1ington,VA,22201presentedinthisdocumentdonotrepresentofficia1positionsoftheMercatusCenterorGeorgeMasonUniversity.Thesamethinkingisseene1sewhere.TheFedera1ReserveBankofPhi1ade1phiazSpane1of38economistsraiseditsthird-quarterforecastfromnega

7、tive0.1percenttopositive0.6percent,butit1oweredthefourth-quarterforecastfrom1.2percenttozerogrowth.6We11sFargoeconomistsarenowforecasting1.7percentgrowthforthisyearsthirdquarterand0.2percentgrowthforfourthquarter?Theyexpecthard1yanygrowthata11for2024.A1ongwithbetterGDPnumbershavecomereasonab1ystrong

8、emp1oymentdata:retai1sa1esgrowthhascontinuedapace,andmajorinvestmentsinUSmanufacturingfaci1itieswerereported.Someofthisapparentstrengthisundoubted1yassociatedwithfedera1spendingincreasesforinfrastructure,1argefedera1subsidiesforchipande1ectricvehic1ebatteryproduction,andincreasesindefenseindustryspe

9、nding.Inshort,itmaybethecasethattheGDPro11er-coastereconomyhasbeennudgedupwardjustatthepointwhereitwasabouttomakeasuddendrop-off.Itishardtoreadthetea1eaveswhentheteacupisbeingdisturbedbymajorpo1icychanges.Ourattentionseemstobeundu1yfocusedonthe1atestchangesinfedera1fisca1andregu1atorypo1icy,whichaff

10、ecttheshorter-termeconomicout1k.Unfortunate1y,perhaps,notmuchattentionispaidtothecontinuedpi1ingonoffedera1debtneededtofundtheexpandingprogramsoverthenextthreetofouryears.ButFitch,sear1yAugustratingdowngradeoffedera1debtfromAAAtoAA+maygetsomeattention.8InFitch,scommentsonthedecision,theratingagencyi

11、ndicatedconcernabouttheJanuary6insurrection,difficu1tiesindea1ingwiththedebtcei1ing,andrapid1ygrowingdebt.9YettheWhiteHouseresponsetothedowngradeputtheemphasiswhereithasbeena11a1ong,ontheshortrun,2suggestingthatwhatishappeningthisyearandnextiswhatmattersmost.AsWhiteHousePressSecretaryKarineJean-Pier

12、reputit,it“defiesrea1itytodowngradetheUnitedStatesatamomentwhenPresidentJoeBidenhasde1iveredthestrongestrecoveryofanycountryinthewor1d/10Others,inc1udingSecretaryofTreasuryJanetYe11en,disagreedstrong1ywithFitch,sdecisionandraisedquestionsaboutthebasisandtimingofthedowngrade.11Sti11,notmuchmentionwas

13、madeoftherecordrunupindebtthee1ephantintheroomwhichhasrisenfrom$19.5tri11ionin2019to$30.9tri11ionin2023.12Thedebtstoodat$10tri11ionin2000.1ookingforInf1ationWhi1etherecessionb1oodhounds,asmentionedabove,aresti11searchingbutnotfinding,thoseworriedaboutinf1ationandtheprospectsforimprovementtherehavere

14、asontoce1ebrate,asdothosefewscho1arswhoarguethatinf1ationisformedprimari1ybygrowthinthemoneysupp1y.YeszasShOwninfigure1,year-over-yeargrowthintheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)peakedinJune2023andhasconsistent1yfa11eneverymonthunti1Ju1y,whentherewasasma11increaseoverthepreviousmonth.13Thereissti11awaytogotor

15、eachtheFedera1ReserveOpenMarketCommittees2.0percenttarget.Figure1a1soshowsyear-over-yeargrowthforM2,acommonmeasureofthenationsmoneysupp1y,whichisofcoursentro11edbytheFed.Ascanbeseen,CPIinf1ationfo11owstheM2growthpathaboutoneyear1ater.14Thechartedre1ationshipsuggestswewi11see2.0percentinf1ationinthen

16、ext12months.Nowitseemsnoneofoure1ectedorappointedpo1itica11eadersareinterestedinemphasizingthero1eofmoneyintheeconomy.Whencitingthecausesofinf1ation,theywou1dratherta1kaboutFIGURE1.CONSUMERPRICEINDEXANDM2YEAR-OVER-YEARPERCENTAGECHANGE,JUNE2018-JU1Y202352018-072019-012019-072023-012023-072023-012023-072023-012023-072023-012023-07Note:B1ue=M2(1eft);ye11ow=ConsumerPriceIndexfora11urbanconsumers,a11itemsInUSdtyav