【行业研报】世界银行-坦桑尼亚结构变化和国内移民的福利效应（英）-2023.7_市场营销策划_重点报.docx

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1、TheWe1fareEffectsofStructura1ChangeandInterna1MigrationinTanzaniaAkuffoAmankwah,1RichmondAttah-Ankomah,2Goodie1Char1esMoshi,3RobSwinke1s4CorrespondingAuthor-1ivingStandardsMeasurementStudy,Deve1opmentDataGroup,Wor1dBank,WashingtonDC,emai1-aamankwahwor1dbank.org2InstituteofStatistica1,Socia1andEconom

2、icResearch,UniversityofGhana,1egon,Ghana3UniversityofDodoma,Tanzania4PovertyandEquityG1oba1Practice,Wor1dBank,Abidjan,Coted,IvoireKeywords:structura1change,interna1migration,we1fare,cross-sector1abormovement,pane1data,Tanzania.WBThematictopics:1aborMobi1ity,InCIUSiVeGrowth.JE1Codes:131,012,O55,J21,J

3、61.1. IntroductionThe1eve1sofeconomicgrowthanddeve1opmentobservedacrosscountriesappeartobeinextricab1y1inkedtothechangesinthestructureofproductionovertimewherethenatureofthischangedeterminesitstransformativeimpactongrowthanddeve1opment(McMi11aneta1,2014;Rodriketa1.,2016).Thetransformativeimpactisrea

4、1izedwhenthechangesarecharacterizedbyshiftsinoutputandemp1oymentfrom1ow-productivityactivitiestohigh-productivityandski11-intensiveactivities(Diao&McMi11an,2018).Theexperiencesofcountriesinthedeve1opedwor1dshowthatatransformativestructura1changetendstofo11owacertaintrajectoryinwhichoutputandemp1oyme

5、ntfirstshiftfromagricu1turetoindustryandthentoservices.However,structura1changeinmanydeve1opingandemergingeconomies,especia11ythoseinSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),hasbeencharacterizedbya1eapfroggingofindustrywithoutputandemp1oymentshiftingfromagricu1turetotheservicesector(whichisoftendominatedbyinforma1act

6、ivities)aswe11asdifferentmigrationandurbanizationpatterns(ChristiaensenandTodo2014;DoroshandThur1ow,2017).Consequent1y,structura1changeinthesecountrieshasgenera11ynotyie1dedsignificantbenefitsintermsofgrowthanddeve1opment,andinsomecases,ithasratherhurteconomicgrowth(McMi11an&Rodrik,2011;McMi11aneta1

7、,2013;Rodriketa1.2016).Theseobserveddifferencesinthepathofstructura1changebetweendeve1opedanddeve1opingeconomiesmaybeassociatedwithmanyfactorsthatdrivethenatureofstructura1change.The1ewistwosectormode1providesanimportantinsightintothemechanism(thatis,rea1wagegapbetweenhighproductivityareaswhichareus

8、ua11y1ocatedinurbanareasandthe1owproductivityareaswhichareusua11yfoundinrura1areas)bywhichatransformativestructura1changeoccursandsomeofitskeydrivers(Go11in2014).Thewagegapref1ectsproductivitydifferentia1sbetweenactivityareas,whichhavebeenfoundtobeanimportantdriverofstructura1changeanditsgrowtheffec

9、t(Paci&Pig1iaru,1997;Diao&McMi11an,2018),evenamongactivitiesthatarec1ose1yre1ated(Fagerberg,2000).A1so,the1ewistwosectormode1emphasizestheimportanceofrura1-urbanmigrationinfaci1itatingatransformativestructura1change.StudiesbyDeBrauweta1.(2013),ChristiaensenandTodo(2014)andInge1aereeta1(2018)a1soprov

10、ideempirica1evidenceontheimportanceofmigrationtostructura1changeinSSA.Inge1aereeta1(2018)showspecifica11ythatmigrationfromrura1communitiestosecondarytownsisimportantintheprocessofstructura1changebecauseitconstitutesthecrucia1bridgebetweensemi-subsistenceagricu1tureandthecapita1isticcity.Otherinsight

11、sfromsevera1extensionsofthe1ewismode1andattemptsataddressingits1imitationshavepointedtootherfactorsaffectingthenatureofstructura1changeanditsgrowthanddeve1opmentimpactindeve1opingcountrycontexts(seeforexamp1e,Chen,Jefferson,&Zhang,2011;Fan,Zhang,&Robinson,2003Acemog1u&Guerrieri,2008).Forexamp1es,the

12、1iteraturehasemphasizedsectora1differencesinfactorproportions(Osmani1990;Acemog1u&Guerrieri,2008),1imitedinvestmentinski11saccumu1ationandinstitutiona1capabi1ities(Rodriketa1.,2016),constraintsimposedbypo1itica1sett1ements(Oseieta1.2023),aswe11asstructura1rigiditiesandmisa11ocation(Go11in2014;Go11in

13、andRogerson2014)asimportantdeterminantsofthenatureofstructura1changeindeve1opingcountries.Structura1changehasimp1icationsonsevera1dimensionsofdeve1opmentinc1udingpovertyreduction(seeHasaneta1.2013;ChristiaensenandKaminski2015;BaymuandSen2017;Sen2017;Atta-AnkomahandOsei2023).Hence,understandingthenua

14、ncesofitsdynamicsandimpactfromamicroperspectiveisasimportantasthemacroeconomictrendsandimpact(1agakosandShu,2023).However,theexistingempirica11iteratureespecia11ythoseonSSAhasmain1yfocusedontrendsandpatternsinmacroeconomicandaggregatewe1fareindicators,1arge1yprovidingadescriptiveana1ysisofthenatureo

15、fstructura1changeanditspotentia1we1fareimp1ications(seeforexamp1estudiessuchasMcMi11an&Rodrik,2011;ChristiaesenandTodo2014;OseiandJedwab,2016).Otherstudies,butoutsideSSA,haveusedstate-1eve1datawithincountriestoexp1orethere1ationshipbetweenmovementofworkersbetweeneconomicsectorsandpovertyreduction.Fo

16、rexamp1e,usingstate-1eve1datainIndia,Hasaneta1(2013)showthatmovementofworkersfrom1owtohighproductivityareasisanimportantchanne1throughwhichincreasesinaggregateproductivityresu1tinpovertyreduction.Daviseta1(2017)poo1edcrosssectiona1(nationa1)househo1dsurveysfromse1ectedAfricancountriestoexp1orepatternsofhouseho1dincomesourcesinSSAandfoundthatwhenagro-c1imaticconditionsarefavorab1e,farmingremainstheoccupationofchoiceformostrura1househo1dsintheSSAcountriesstudied.Ama