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1、FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFedera1ReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(On1ine)TheFOMCUseofOperationa1Targets:85YearsandCountingJeffreyHuther,E1izabethK1ee,KevinKieman,andEthanRodriguez-Shah2023-039P1easecitethispaperas:Huther,Jeffrey,E1izabethK1ee,KevinKiernan,andEth

2、anROdrigUeZ-Shah(2023).4tTheFOMC,sUseofOperationa1Targets:85YearsandCounting/FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2023-039.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFedera1ReserveSystem,https:/doi.org/10.17016FEDS.2023.039.NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepre1iminarymateri

3、a1scircu1atedtostimu1atediscussionandcritica1comment.Theana1ysisandconc1usionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.Referencesinpub1icationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknow1edgement)shou1dbec1earedwiththea

4、uthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.TheFOMC,sUseOfOperationa1Targets:85YearsandCountingJeffreyHuther*E1izabethK1eetKevinKiernan+EthanROdrigUeZ-ShahMay14,2023AbstractThispaperusessummariesoftheFedera1OpenMarketCommittees(FOMC,s)meetingstoidentifyitsoperationa1targetsandmapthosetoopera

5、tingregimes.Wefindthatoperationa1targetsweremoreoftendiscussedintheear1ierpartoftheFOMC,s85-yearhistory,butrecentyearshaveseenaresurgenceindiscussions.Weidentifydistinctoperatingregimesandfindthatregimeswithdiscussionsofmu1tip1etargets,usua11yrateandquantitypairs,aremorecommonthanregimesdominatedbyd

6、iscussionsofsing1etargets.Wedocumentthatthecurrentperiod(the2007-2009financia1crisistotoday)isanotab1ebreakinoperationa1targetsfromear1ierperiods.Wea1soshowthatshiftsinoperationa1targetsoccurduringrecoveries,orafterasignicantdownturninthemacroeconomy.Acknow1edgments:Wewou1d1iketothankWeiZhengandDave

7、Xiaforthedeve1opmentofthedatabaseonwhichourana1ysiswasbased,andtoMarkCar1son,RuthJudson,Michae1Ki1eyandDaveSma11(inmemoriamforhe1pfu1commentsandsuggestions.Theviewsexpressedherearestrict1ythoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yrepresentthepositionoftheFedera1ReserveBoard,theFedera1ReserveSystem,orFanni

8、eMae.Federa1ReserveBoard+Federa1ReserveBoardFannieMaeGeorgetownUniversity1 IntroductionTheconsensusaroundthefedera1fundsrateasanand,formanyyears,theoperationa1targetoftheFedera1OpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)hasbeeninp1ace1ongenoughthatitis1arge1ytakenforgranted.Ithasnota1waysbeenso.TheFOMC,soperationa1ta

9、rget-thefinancia1rateorquantitythattheFOMCtargetstoachieveitsu1timateeconomicobjectiveshasevo1vedovertimeandhasinc1udedvariab1essuchasthe1eve1ofreservesinthebankingsystem,yie1dsonTreasurysecurities,monetaryaggregates,unsecuredinterbank1endingrates,and,current1y,amixofmarketrates,administeredratesand

10、assetpurchasetargets.SeeCapeta1(2023)foradefinitionofoperationa1targetsanddescriptionsofhowtargetsfitintomonetarypo1icyimp1ementationframeworks.OurapproachdifferssomewhatfromBindsei1andFotia(2023)whoinc1udemonetaryaggregatesintheirc1assificationofu1timate,ratherthanoperationa1targets.Ourgoa1istoprov

11、ideareadi1yaccessib1eperspectiveontheFOMC,suseofthesetargetsovertime,toestab1ishdifferentoperatingregimes,orperiodsinwhichaparticu1aroperationa1targetortargetswereused,andtoidentifyfactorsthatinf1uenceshiftsinoperatingregimes.WecharacterizetheF0MC,soperationa1targetsandregimesusingtechniquesderivedf

12、romthe1iteratureonnatura11anguageprocessing(N1P).Weapp1ythesetechniquestothemeetingminutesof85yearsofFOMCde1iberations.Tit1eI1oftheBankingActof1935estab1ishedtheFedera1OpenMarketCommitteewhichfirstconvenedinMarch1936.Ourdatasetendsin2023.Wehavethreemainfindings.First,weseediscussionsofoperationa1tar

13、getspeakfo11owingthreeevents:theseparationofmonetaryfromfisca1po1icywiththeadventoftheTreasury-FedAccordin1951,theaggressiveeffortstoreduceinf1ationthatbeganin1ate1979,andtheg1oba1financia1crisis.Second,operationa1regimesidentifiedinthehistorica11iteratureareref1ectedinthere1ativefrequencyofassociat

14、edoperationa1target1anguage.Ouruseofse1ected,bigramsotwo-wordtermsdescribingoperationa1targets1ineupwithwe11-knownperiodsandshiftsofoperationa1regimes,suggestingthatana1ysisofwordusageinFOMCdocumentscanbehe1pfu1inidentifyingpo1icytrends.Andthird,theFOMCoftenusedmorethanoneoperationa1targetsimu1taneo

15、us1y.Wefindthat,quiteoften,quantityandratetargetswerediscussedsimu1taneous1y.MembersoftheFOMChave1ongwrest1edwiththequestionofhowoperationa1targetsshou1dbeusedtoachievetheCommittee,seconomicobjectives(forafewse1ectexamp1esofviewsovertime,seeBox1).Priortotheintroductionofverbatimtranscriptsin1976,deb

16、atesanduncertaintyaboutappropriateoperationa1too1sandtheirusagecanbeg1eanedfrommeetingminutes,ex-postreportsandsynthesesofothercontemporaryrecords.Garbade(2023),forexamp1e,usesawiderangeofsourcestodescribetheevo1utionofFOMCpo1iciesfrom1951-1979.Inthispaper,weturntotheFOMCMinutesandsimi1arsummarydocumentstoconstructacontinuousrecordofdiscussionsonoperationa1targetssincetheinaugurationofthemodernCommitteestructurein1936.Athoro