Getting to 100%:Six strategies for the challenging last 10%.docx
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1、rerspectveGettingto100%:Sixstrategiesforthecha11enging1ast10%TrieuMai,*Pau1Denho1m,PatrickBrown,Wes1eyCo1e,E1aineHa1e,Patrick1amers,Cait1inMurphy,MarkRuth,BrianSergi,Danie1Steinberg,andSamue1F.Ba1dwinCONTEXT&SCA1EExpandingwindandso1ardep1oymentwhi1emaintainingtheexistingc1eane1ectricitygenerationhas
2、emergedasthemostcost-effectivepathwaytosignificantIyreducee1ectricitysystememissions.Pathwaysforreachingmoreambitiouscommitments-inc1udingagrowingnumberca11ingfor100%renewab1eenergy(RE)or100%carbon-freee1ectricity-are1esscertain,withsomepathwaysre1yingonawiderangeofemergingtechno1ogiestomeetasma11fr
3、actionofdemand.Wegenera1izethisftna1incrementtodecarbonizethegridasthe1ast10%whi1eacknow1edginguncertaintiesaroundtheprecisepercentageandwhentheseoptionswi11beneeded.Thisworkreviewssixtechno1ogystrategiesthatcou1dp1ayakeyro1einmeetingtheneedsofthe1ast10%andhigh1igh1sthecha11engesthataccompanyeachoft
4、hem.Thesetechno1ogiescanbepursuedindividua11yorasaportfo1ioofoptions.Thispaperseekstoimprovetheunderstandingofthetrade-offsandcharacteristicsofpossib1efutureso1utions,whichcou1dinformdecision-makingtoday.Thethresho1d(e.g.,REorCO21eve1)atwhichthiscostinf1ectionpointoccursdc-pendsonmanyfactors,inc1udi
5、nggridf1exibi1ity,techno1ogycosts,andhowcostisSUMMARYMeetingthe1astincrementofdemanda1waysposescha11enges,irrespectiveofwhethertheresourcesusedtomeetitarecarbonfree.Thecha11engesrimariIystemfromtheinfrequentuti1izationofassetsdep1oyedtomeethighdemandperiods,whichrequireveryhighrevenueduringthoseperi
6、odstorecovercapita1costs.Achieving100%carbon-freee1ectricityobviatestheuseoftraditiona1fossi1-fue1-basedgenerationtechno1ogies,bythemse1ves,toservethe1astincrementofdemand一whichwerefertoasthe1ast10%.,Here,wesurveystrategiesforovercomingthis1ast10%cha11enge,inc1udingextendingtraditiona1carbon-freeene
7、rgysources(e.g.,windandso1ar,otherrenewab1eenergy,andnuc1ear),rep1acingfossifue1swithcarbon-freefue1sforcombustion(e.g.,hydrogen-anc1biomass-basedfue1s),deve1opingcarboncaptureandcarbondioxideremova1techno1ogies,anddep1oyingmu1tidaydemand-sideresources.Wequa1itative1ycompareeconomicfactorsassociated
8、withthe1ow-uti1izationconditionanddiscussuniquechaiIengesofeachoptiontoinformthecomp1exassessmentsneededtoidentifyaportfo1iothatcou1dachievecarbon-freee1ectricity.A1thoughmanye1ectricitysystemsarea1ongwayfromrequiringthese1ast10%techno1ogies,researchandcarefu1considerationareneededsoonfortheoptionst
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