【行业研报】国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP跟踪：尽管下行风险增加但第二季度GDP将持平（英）-2.docx

《【行业研报】国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP跟踪：尽管下行风险增加但第二季度GDP将持平（英）-2.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【行业研报】国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP跟踪：尽管下行风险增加但第二季度GDP将持平（英）-2.docx（12页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchTodaysdataindicatethatGDPremainedf1atinthethreemonthstoMay,in1inewithourpreviousforecast,andconsistentwiththe1onger-termtrendof1oweconomicgrowthintheUK.Month1yGDPfe11by0.1percentinMayfo11owinggrowthof0.2percentinApri1,drivenbyafa11inproductionoutputandnogr

2、owthintheservicessector.WiththeBankRatenowat5percent,suppressingdemand,UKgrowthwi11continuetobeanaemicatbestinthecomingmonths.,Pau1aBejaranoCarboAssociateEconomist,NIESRMainpoints Month1yGDPfe11by0.1percentinMay2023fo11owinggrowthof0.2percentinApri1.Thismonth1yfigurewasdrivenbydrivenbyafa11inproduct

3、ionoutputof0.6percentfo11owingafa11of0.2percentinApri1,andservicesoutputremainingf1atfo11owinggrowthof0.3percentinApri1. GDPremainedf1atinthethreemonthstoMayre1ativetothepreviousthreemonths,in1inewithourmostrecentforecast.Asshowninfigure1be1owztheeconomyhas1arge1yf1at1inedfo11owingtheinitia1stagesof

4、post-pandemicrecovery;todaysmonth1yGDPisestimatedtobeon1y0.2percentaboveitspre-pandemic(February2023)1eve1. WeforecastGDPtoremainf1atinthesecondquarterof2023zremainingbroad1yconsistentwiththe1onger-termtrendof1oweconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom.Thatsaid,aspersistent1yhighinf1ationcontinuestosqueezeh

5、ouseho1dbudgets,a1ongsidetheeffectsofthehighcostofborrowing,demandwi11becurbedinthenearterm.Asaresu1t,service-sectoroutputinparticu1armaycontinuetofa1teranddragdownonGDPinthecomingmonth.TheriskstoGDPatthemomentseemtobeskeweddownside.Figure1-UKGDPEconomicsettingInourpreviousGDPtracker,pub1ishedon12Ju

6、ne,weobservedthatthatmonth1yGDPgrewby0.2percentinApri1,drivenbygrowthinconsumer-facingservicessuchaswho1esa1eandretai1trade,andinformationandcommunication,whichwaspartia11yoffsetbyadec1ineinmanufacturingoutput.Thedatathusremainedbroad1yconsistentwiththe1onger-termtrendof1oweconomicgrowthintheUnitedK

7、ingdom.Todaysdatasuggestthatmonth1yGDPfe11by0.1percentinMayfo11owinggrowthof0.2percentinApri1,drivenbyafa11inproductionoutputandnogrowthintheservicessector.WiththeBankRatea1readyat5percentandpossib1yrisingfurtheroverthecomingmonths,suppressingdemand,itisunc1earwhetherhouseho1dspendingwi11beab1etokee

8、ptheservicessectoraf1oat;inanycase,wecanexpectGDPgrowthtobeanaemicatbest.The1atestONSuarter1vnationa1accountsforthefirstquarterof2023high1ightthatthehouseho1dsavingsratiofe11to8.7percentinthefirstquarteroftheyear,downfrom9.3percentinthefourthquarterof2023.However,therewasnochangeinrea1househo1dconsu

9、mptiononthequarter,rather,rea1househo1dsdisposab1eincomefe11by0.8percentinQ1fo11owinggrowthof1.3percentin2023Q4.Aspersistent1yhighinf1ationcontinuestosqueezehouseho1dbudgets,a1ongsidetheeffectsofthehighcostofborrowing,service-sectoroutputmaycontinuetofa1teranddragdownonGDPinthecomingmonth.Ear1ierthi

10、sweek,wepub1ishedourWaqeTraCkeeTherecentONSestimatessuggestthattheannua1growthrateofaverageweek1yearnings,inc1udingbonuses,was6.9percentinthethreemonthstoMay,whi1epaygrowthexc1udingbonuseswas7.3percent-equa11ingthe1argestgrowthrateinregu1arpayrecordedduringthepandemic.Ourforecastforthesecondquartero

11、fthisyearseesbothfiguresat7.2percent.Highwagegrowthoverthepastyearhasbeenenab1edbythetightnessofthe1abourmarket.However,thereareear1ysignsthatthe1abourmarketmaybegradua11y1oosening;forinstance,theunemp1oymentrateincreaseds1ight1yto4.0percentandthenumberofvacanciesfe11by85,000inthethreemonthstoMay,br

12、ingingtheunemp1oymenttovacancyratioto1.3.Itispossib1ethatthis1ooseningwi11generateagradua1decreaseinaveragewagegrowth,whicha1ongsidehighinf1ationandborrowingcostswi11weighdownonhouseho1dspending,andconsequent1y,GDPzinthecomingmonths.Ontheotherhand,ifthe1abourmarketremainstight,theMPCmayfee1afurtherr

13、atehikeiswarranted.Inanycasezitseems1ike1ythatdemandwi11becurbedsignificant1yinthecomingmonths.Corresponding1y,theriskstoGDPforecastsareskewedtothedownsideatthemoment.Tofurthercontextua1iseourforecastofGDPremainingf1atinthesecondquarterof2023,figure2comparesspendingandhiringindicatorstopre-pandemic1

14、eve1s,whi1efigure3recordsrecenttrendsinPMIs.Highfrequencyspendingandhiringindicatorshaveremainedbroad1ystab1ethroughout2023zthoughourhousingindicatorhasseenmorevo1ati1itythaninpreviousyears,possib1yduetotheeffectsofthecurrentmonetarytighteningcyc1eonthehousingmarket.Itisnotab1ethatcreditanddebitcard

15、spendinghasremainedc1osetopre-pandemic1eve1sthroughout2023zdespitethecost-of-1ivingcrisisanduncertaineconomicout1ook.Thissupportsourviewthathighconsumerspendinghasbeenkeepingtheeconomyaf1oatinthefirstha1foftheyear.Figure3i11ustratescontinuedgrowthinservicesoutputinJune,thoughdecreasedoutputinconstru

16、ctionandinmanufacturingmayweighdownonGDP.Takentogether,thesetwofiguressuggestthattheeconomicout1ookforthesecondquarterof2023isoneoff1at1iningoutput.Figure1-Spendingandhiringindicators(week1yindices)Notes:(a)Eng1andandWa1es.Debitandcreditcards(CHAPSbased):IndexFebruary2023=100,abackward1ookingseven-dayro11ingaverage,non-seasona11yadjusted,nomina1prices.Jobadverts:IndexFebruary2023=100zweek1yaverage.EPCcertificates:IndexFebruary2023=100,four-weekro11ingave