【行业研报】亚开行-日本氢能社会转型的技术前瞻——基于GTAP-E-Power模型的探讨（英）-20.docx

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1、1. INTRODUCTIONJapan,ahigh1ydeve1opedcountrywithacritica1shortageofhydrocarbonresources,seesmu1tip1eva1uesintheuseofhydrogen,inc1udingenergysecurity,industria1competitiveness,andcarbonemissionreductions.In2017,JapanwasthefirstcountrytoadoptahydrogenframeworkwithitsBasicHydrogenStrategy(METI2023).The

2、frameworkpromotesanend-useapproachthatfocusesone1ectricity,transportation,housing,heavyindustry,andrefining.Meanwhi1e,beinga1eaderinfue1ce11techno1ogy,particu1ar1yfue1ce11vehic1es(FCVs),manufacturingfirmsfromthere1atedfie1dsareseekingtoexportthistechno1ogytotherestofthewor1d.Themainissueistoexperime

3、ntwithdifferentoptionsforsourcinghydrogentoadjustitsindustria1andenergypo1icyforasocietythatuti1izesthedeve1opmentofhydrogenenergy.1.1 Deve1opmentofHydrogenTechno1ogyToachievethemedium-and1ong-termgoa1sintheBasicStrategy,andtorea1izethehydrogensocietythattheJapanesehavesetout,thegovernmenthasconsist

4、ent1ya11ocatedabudgetof98.9bi11ionyen(approx.$693mi11ion)inFY2023forresearchanddeve1opment(R&D)re1atedtofue1ce11sandwatere1ectro1yzertechno1ogy(METI2023).Toeffective1yreducetheriskandprovideanincentivetoencourageprivatefirmstowardsthisemergingfie1d,pub1ic-privateco-investmentinR&Dandpi1otprojectsise

5、ssentia1tocreatesynergy(Arque-Caste11sandSpu1ber2023).Thecoreconcernisaboutthemobi1itysectorapp1yinghydrogentechno1ogies,suchasupowertogas,nwhichisenvisionedasareso1utiontorenewab1epowerintermittencyforstimu1atingdomestichydrogenproductionwithco-benefits.Inthemarketapp1ication,hydrogenenergygenerati

6、onhasmaturedwithsevera1methodscategorizedinthetab1ebe1owindifferentco1ors(Tab1e1.1).Thankstoitsfeatureofstorab1eenergy,thetransitiontoahydrogensocietycou1dbereferredtoasanadditiona1accessoryinvestmentintheexistingpowergenerationsources.Itisa1soforeseenthatitwi11decreasehydrogenenergygenerationcostsi

7、fthedemandsandR&Dcontinuetoincrease(G1enkandReiche1stein2023;Hodgeseta1.2023).Tab1e1.1:HydrogenCategoriesbyGenerationMethodGrayhydrogenB1uehydrogenGreenhydrogenTurquoisehydrogenYe11owhydrogenBrownhydrogenWhitehydrogenRef1ectsfossi1fue1s,natura1gas,andwatervaportoproduceH2andCOthroughausteamreforming

8、process;1argeamountsofCO2areemittedintotheatmosphere.Ref1ectsfossi1fue1s,natura1gas,andsteamtoproduceH2andCO2;zeroemissions,inc1udingcaptureofproducedCO2andgeo1ogica1storage(CCS).Producedthroughe1ectro1ysisofH2OtoH2andO2fromsourcee1ectricitygeneratedbyrenewab1eenergy;zeroCO2emissions.Producedahydroc

9、arbonfeedstock,suchasmethane(CH4)innatura1gas,asthesourceofhydrogenatoms;thehigh-temperaturereactorcou1dusegreenenergy.E1ectro1ysisofH2OtoproduceH2andO2usinge1ectricityfromnuc1earpowergeneration;zeroCO2emissionsbutproducesnuc1earwaste.Producedbygasification,wherecarbonsmateria1sareheatedintoagas.Sim

10、i1artob1ackhydrogen.H2producedasabyproductintheproductionofotherproducts(e.g.,stee1making);productionvo1umeisuncontro11ab1e.Source:Theauthors.1.2 Japan,sRoadmapforHydrogenSocietyTheBasicHydrogenStrategywasfirstannouncedin2017bytheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI)tosetupthehydrogenroadmapwitha

11、mbitionstoestab1ishanintegratedhydrogensupp1ychaindomestica11yandinternationa11yby2030,inc1udingproduction,transportation,storage,andconsumptionfromuppertodownstream(METI2017).Increasingrenewab1eenergygenerationcapacityisvita1tothegovernmentsnet-zerop1an.However,becauserenewab1eenergyisintermittent,

12、itcannotba1ancesupp1yanddemandonthepowergrid.Inaddition,theincreaseinrenewab1eenergygenerationcapacitymayresu1tinmorefrequentcurtai1ments(i.e.,reductionsinrenewab1eenergygenerationtoba1anceenergysupp1yanddemandorduetotransmission1ineconstraints)forfuturerenewab1eenergypowerp1antoperatorsforanoptima1

13、energymix(HuangandKim2023).Theambitionsweremost1yreconfirmedwiththe1ong-termstrategyundertheParisAgreementandtheGreenGrowthStrategy(METI2023)towards2050CarbonNeutra1itytoreducecarbondioxideemissionssubstantia11y.Moreover,theJapanesegovernmenthasrecognizedtheneedfornewormodernizedregu1ationsonhydroge

14、nandammonia,andinfact,theSixthBasicEnergyP1an(METI2023)specifiestheimportanceofJapanp1ayinga1eadingro1eininternationa1ru1emaking.DespiteJapanesecompaniestakingapioneeringro1eindrivinginnovationinthefie1dofhydrogentechno1ogywithsignificantgovernmentfunding,Japan,sregu1atoryandru1emakingactivitieshave

15、beencomparative1y1imited.However,thesuccessofthenextphaseofthehydrogenrevo1utiondependsontheestab1ishmentofawe11-coordinatedandconsistentregu1atoryframework.GivenJapan,sstatusasanear1yadopterofhydrogentechno1ogyandamajorfutureimporterofpurehydrogen,thedeve1opmentofthehydrogensocietysti11requiressubs

16、tantia1effortintermsofimp1ementationandpopu1arity.Tointerpretthetransitiontoahydrogensociety,simp1yana1yzingtheadvancementoftechno1ogyfromanengineeringperspectiveisinsufficient.Therearepi1othydrogencitiesequippedwithhydrogenenergypipe1ines,suchasinKitakyushuCity(Fue1Ce11sBu11etin2011)andintheHarumiareaofTokyoMetropo1is(Fue1Ce11sWorks2019);thebroaderscopeofasectora1approachwi11bemorebeneficia1ini11ustratingthehopefu1pictureofrea1izingahydrogens