【行业研报】德国外交关系理事会-作为国家安全投资的减排（英）-2023.7_市场营销策划_重点报告2.docx

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1、No.22Iu1y2023DGPpo1icybriefACTIONGROUPTimBoschProirctbUruoer.CenterforCteniteAndForeianPoIkY1oy1eCampbe11Rr%earchFe11ow.CenierForChmiteAndForrianRoIkYDr.KiraVinkeHeJdcf1h*fMitfforCbnateAndForeianRoIkvEmissionsMitigationasaNationa1SecurityInvestmentGermanysfirstNationa1SecurityStrateayidentifiessusta

2、inabi1ityasapi11arofpeaceandstabi1ity.HoweverJnnaviqatintherecentenervcrisisres1tnafromRussiasinvasionofUkraine,theovern-menthasprioritizedshort-termCdsismanaqementover1ongtermc1imateqoa1s.1ftheZeitenWendeIStObea1argerpo1kyshift1Chan-ce11orO1afScho1zneedstodrivethecabinettore-priotizerapiddecarboniz

3、ationtomeetc1imateob1iations.FosterinaIndeoen-dencefromFossikfue1autocraciesandavertinthedisintegrationofthemuIti1atera1effortstoprotecttheg1oba1Commons1aythebasisforfreedomandsecurity.-In1inewiththeNationa1SecurityStrategysstressonapreventiveapproach,rapidemissionsreductionsarecrucia1formainuininth

4、ecoutrv,seconomicresi1ienceandCredibi1itvasa1eaderoc1imateaction.-Increasingecosystemco11apseandIife4hreateninqextremeeventswi11movemu1ti1atera1andD1uri1atera1c1imateactionandtheraceto1eadinqreentechno1oqiescenterStaqeingeopo1itics.-Thereentransitionnecessitatestheeaementofnotiustthestatebutofa11sta

5、keho1ders,inc1udingbusinessandindividua1s.TheresponsestotheCOVID19Dandemkandtheenergycrisisprovideva1uab1eIessonsfortherequiredshift.-Europeanoffshorewindandcircu1areconomyDroiectswou1dhavec1imatemidatoneffectsandorovdeoooortutiestobo1sterCermav,sqeopo1itca1positionandeconomicout1ook.EmissionsMitiaa

6、tionasaNjit1onA1SecufKvInveswnemDGAPPO1ICYBRIEFTheGeopo1iticsoftheZeitenwendeintheEnergyCrisisRussiasro1easthedominantoi1andnatura1gassupp1ierforGermanyp1acedenergypo1icyattheheartoftheZeitemoende.Whi1emanyactorshada1readyraisedconcernsabouttheseimportdependencies,thefu11-sca1einvasionofUkraineinFeb

7、ruary2023forcedanacuterea1izationofthedepthofGermanyzSvu1nerabi1ity.1ThesituationWaSaggravatedbythedestructionoftheNordStreampipe1ines.InhisFebruary2023Zeiteniuendespeech,Chance11orO1afScho1zstatedthataresponsib1eandfarsightedenergypo1icywou1dimproveenergysecurity.2Thisistoberea1izedbysca1ingupthede

8、p1oymentofrenewab1estoincreaseautonomyofsupp1yandbydiversifyingenergyimports.Germanysubsequent1y1easedf1oating1iquefiednatura1gas(1NG)importcapacityoffitscoast,withthesebecomingoperationa1withinmonths.Itfaci1itatedthisthroughaquick1egis1ativeprocessandamobi1izationoffunding?AccordingtoScho1zzthis”ne

9、wGermanspeedz/shou1dbeab1ueprintforeconomictransformationasawho1e.4Atthesametime,energycompaniessought1NGimportsontheg1oba1markettosupp1ytoGermany.Thequantitiessecuredthusfararesignificant,a1thoughindividua1contractsaccounton1yforasma11shareofthecurrent1eve1of1NGdemand?Thesesteps,a1ongwithchangesinc

10、onsumerbehavior,he1pedavoidthemoreseverepredictedimpactsoftheenergycrisisoverthepastyear.Thegovernmentdescribesnatura1gasasashort-to-medium-termbridgingtechno1ogywhi1eGermanysca1esuprenewab1esanddecarbonizesindustria1activity.However,theconcernisthatitwi11beusedfor1ongerthanneededandthat1NGinfrastru

11、ctureandcontractsmay1ocknatura1gasintotheenergymix.Forinstance,thecountry,simportcapacitymayexceeddemandfrom2030.6Companycontractsfor1NGimportsstretchoveraperiodof15years.7In2023theEUimported60percentmore1NGthanin2023,andtwo-thirdsofthisnewsupp1yCamefromtheUnitedStates.8Whi1ethetransat1antica11iance

12、iscrucia1znewasymmetrica1energyre1ationscou1d1eaveEuropevu1nerab1eifAmericanpo1icychanges.Thesedeve1opmentsarepartofaninternationa1trendofexpansionofgasinvestmentsthatunderminesdec1aredambitionstofu1fi11thegoa1softheParisC1imateAgreement.Itisestimatedthatifa11the1NGinfrastructurep1annedg1oba11ywasre

13、a1ized,thecapacityin2030wou1damountto235percentcomparedto20231eve1s.Internationa11y,thiswou1dimp1yasurp1usof1.9gigatonsofcarbondioxideequiva1entcomparedtocapacitiescompatib1ewithnet-zeroscenariosbymid-century.9DGAPpo1icyMIEFEmissionsMitigationasaNationa1SecurityInvestmentGermanya1soincreasedtheuseof

14、emissions-in-tensivecoa1powertomakeupfornear-termsupp1yshortages.In2023,theshareofcoa1inthee1ectricitymixincreasedby8.4percent,uptoaboutone-thirdofit,comparedtothepreviousyear.10Besidesputtingemissionsreductiontargetsatrisk,Germany,sdifferentmeasuresa1socreateaforeignpo1icydi1emmaforit.Thecountryzsc

15、ontinueduseofcoa1andotherfossi1fue1ssignificant1yweakensits1egitimacywhenca11ingonothercountriestophaseoutfossi1fue1s.Beyondthephasingoutoffossi1fue1s,otherareasofthedomesticenergytransitionarea1so1agging.Forexamp1e,thebui1dupofrenewab1eenergiesandthee1ectrificationofkeysectors,particu1ar1ythebui1di

16、ngsandindustrysector,arenotproceedingfastenoughtomeetGermanyzSnationa1net-zerogoa1ssetfor2045.nWhi1enewwarmingrecordsareset,withundeniab1ehumansecurityimp1ications,a11factorspointtotheconc1usionthatpo1icychangesaretoos1owandincrementa1toavoidcatastrophicc1imateimpacts.12GermanyzSnationa11yincoherentgovernanceofthecommonsa1socreatesaforeignpo1