【行业研报】IMF-令人不快的惊喜？选举与税务新闻冲击（英）-2023.6_市场营销策划_重点报告2.docx

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1、INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDUnp1easantSurprises?E1ectionsandTaxNewsShocksAntonioC.DavidandCanSeverWP/23/139IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresentthe

2、viewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023JUNWP/23/1392023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperAfricanDepartmentUnp1easantSurprises?E1ectionsandTaxNewsShocksAntonioC.DavidandCanSever*AuthorizedfordistributionbyEdwardGemaye1June2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressby

3、theauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Unanticipatedchangesintaxpo1icyare1ike1ytohavedifferentmacroeconomiceffectscomparedtoanticip

4、atedchangesduetosevera1mechanisms,inc1udingfisca1foresightandpo1icyuncertainty.Itisthereforeimportanttounderstandwhatdrivessuchpo1icysurprises.Weexp1orethenatureofunanticipatedtaxpo1icychangesbyfocusingonapo1itica1economydeterminantofthoseevents,name1ythetimingofe1ections.Usingmonth1ydatafor22advanc

5、edeconomiesandemergingmarketsovertheperiod1990-2018,weshowthatimp1ementation1agstendtobesignificant1y1ongerfortaxpo1icychangeannouncementsthataremadeduringthepre-e1ectionperiods,thereby1eadingtoa1ower1ike1ihoodoftaxnewsshocks1.Wea1sofindthatimp1ementation1agsbecomemuchshorterfortaxpo1icychangesthata

6、reannouncedintheaftermathofe1ections,generatingmorefrequenttaxnewsshocks.Thispatternremainssimi1arfordifferenttaxmeasuresortypesoftaxes.Thefindingsarerobusttoanumberofchecks,inc1udinga1ternativedefinitionsoftaxnewsshocks,ortocontro11ingforvariouseconomicandinstitutiona1factors.JE1C1assificationNumbe

7、rs:D72,D78,P51,E02,E62,E63,H20,H30Keywords:TaxShocks;E1ectora1Cyc1es;Po1itica1EconomyAuthorsE-Mai1Address:AntonioC.David:adavidimf.orq:CanSever:CSeVerimf.oraTheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Theauthorswou1d1iketoth

8、ankHichamBennouna,CostasChristou1EraDab1a-Norris11ucEyraud,EdwardGemaye11KouameDesireKanga,MoustaphaMbohouMama,Andua1emMengistu,Jaros1awWieczorekandPeterWankuruforusefu1discussionsandfeedback.Theauthorsarea1sogratefu1totheparticipantsoftheIMFSeminarattheAfricanDepartmentforhe1pfu1suggestions.A11erro

9、rsareourown.WORKINGPAPERSUnp1easantSurprises?E1ectionsandTaxNewsShocksPreparedbyAntonioC.DavidandCanSever1Theviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Theauthorswou1d1iketothankHichamBennouna,CostasChristou1EraDab1a-Norris11u

10、cEyraud.EdwardGemaye11KouameDesireKanga,MoustaphaMbohouMama.Andua1emMengistu1Jaros1awWieczorekandPeterWankuruforusefu1discussionsandfeedback.Theauthorsarea1sogratefu1totheparticipantsoftheIMFSeminarattheAfricanDepartmentforhe1pfu1suggestions.A11errorsareourown.Contents1. Introduction32. DataandSty1i

11、zedFacts72.1. TaxPo1icyChanges72.2. E1ections92.3. OtherVariab1es92.4. Sty1izedFacts102.4.1. EventsintheSamp1e102.4.2. TaxNewsShocksandE1ectionPeriods113. Empirica1Strategy124. Resu1ts134.1. MainResu1ts134.2. A1ternativeDefinitionsofTaxNewsShocks154.3. OtherRobustnessChecks184.4. Exp1anatoryPower214

12、.5. ChangesintheTaxBaseversusTaxRates234.6. ChangesinConsumptionversusIncomeTaxes234.7. AdvancedEconomiesversusEmergingMarkets245. Conc1usion25References27Appendix31E1ectionsintheSamp1e31Imp1ementation1agsandE1ectionPeriods321. IntroductionThemacroeconomiceffectsoftaxpo1icychangescandependonwhethert

13、hosechangesareanticipatedbytheeconomicagentsornot.Whenthedurationbetweentheannouncementandimp1ementationdatesoftaxpo1icychangesis1onger,thatis,whenthepo1icychangeis,anticipated,agentshavemoretimetoadjusttheirbehavior(so-ca11ed*,fisca1foresighf,asdiscussedin1eepereta1.2012,2013),e.g.,bysubstitutingta

14、xab1eactivityintothepresentinanticipationofafuturetaxincrease.1nthiscase,suchanticipationoftaxab1eactivitywou1dentai1anincreaseinoutputCboom)atthetimeoftheannouncementofthetaxincrease,whichwou1dbefo11owedbyadec1ineinoutputasthetaxincreaseisimp1emented.Converse1y,ananticipatedtaxcutwou1dbeassociatedw

15、ithadec1ineinoutputonimpactandasubsequentrecoveryasthetaxdecreaseisimp1emented.Infact,theextant1iteraturefindssignificantdifferencesintermsofthemacroeconomicimpactoftaxpo1icychangeswhencomparinganticipatedandunanticipatedpo1icychanges(MertensandRavn2011,201212014,1eepereta1.2012,2013,Ramey2016).Fori

16、nstance,inanewKeynesianDSGEmode1withsevera1standardfrictions(inc1udingfinancia11yconstrained,hand-to-mouth,househo1ds),fisca1mu1tip1iersforgovernmentspendingaremuch1ower(andcanbeevennegativeonimpact),whenthereisa1argedegreeoffisca1foresightre1ativetothebenchmarkofnofisca1foresight(1eepereta1.2012).Incontrast,theoutputeffectsofincreasesincapita1taxes