【行业报告】国际事务研究院-打破陈规？多极世界中货币多元化的探索（英）-2023.6_市场营销策划_.docx

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1、IstitutoAffariInternaziona1iBreakingtheMo1d?TheQuestforCurrencyDiversificationinaMu1tipo1arWor1dbyNico1aBi1ottawEverynightIaskmyse1fwhya11countrieshavetobasetheirtradeonthedo11ar.Whycan,tWedotradebasedonourowncurrencies?Whowasitthatdecidedthatthedo11arwasthecurrencyafterthedisappearanceofthego1dstan

2、dard?”(1u1a,Shanghai,13Apri12023)DuringarecentspeechattheNewDeve1opmentBank,BrazisPresident1uizInacio1u1adaSi1vaquestionedwhya11countrieshavetore1yontheUSdo11arfortradeandsuggestedusingtheirowncurrenciesinstead.Joe1eahyandHudson1ockett,“Brazi1s1u1aCa11sforEndtheDo11arTradeDominancen,inFinancia1Times

3、,13Apri12023,Jami1Ander1iniandC1eaCau1cutt,wEuropeMustResistPressuretoBecome*America,sFo11owers/SaysMacron,inPo1itico,9Apri12023,SincethebeginningofthewarinUkraine,1u1a,sstatementhasbeenpartofachorusratherthanan运OIatedvoice.Emmanue1Macronhasa1sourgedtheEUtoreduceitsdependenceextraterritoria1ityofthe

4、U.S.CIOIIarVWhiIesevera1countries,rangingfromArgentinatoSaudiArabia,arepromotingtheChineseyuantobeusedfortradesett1ementswithChina.Inthisframework,USSecretaryoftheTreasuryJanetYe11enhaswarnedabouttheEiSkoffinancia1sanctions1inkedtothedo11arunderminingitshegemony.AFP,uYe11enSaysSanctionsMayRiskHegemo

5、nyofUSDo11arw,inBarron,s,16Apri12023,says-sanctions-may-risk-hegemony-of-us-do11ar-479c564f.Nothingnewonthefinancia1systemfrontNothingnew,onemaysay.DespitetheerosionoftheUSdo11arhavingbeenpredicted,cha11enged,envisionedanddiscussedforthe1asttwodecades,thegreenbackhascontinuedtoremainthedominantcurre

6、ncyintheinternationa1financia1system.Whymightthistimebedifferent,though?Nico1aBi1ottaisanassociatefe11owattheIstitutoAffariInternaziona1i(IAI).HeisthecoordinatoroftheEU-SDFA&ResearchAssociateattheEuropeanUniversityInstitute.IVIMoNoA1thoughpreviouseffortsto1essenre1ianceontheUSdo11arwereunsuccessfu1,

7、theconvergenceofgeopo1itica1tensions,economicdis1ocationanddigita1transformationmaycreateanidea1environmentforagradua1fragmentationoftheg1oba1monetarysysteminthe1ongrun.See:Nico1aBi1ottaandFabrizioBotti(eds),Digita1isationandGeopo1itics.Cata1yticForcesinthe(Future)Internationa1MonetarySystem,Rome,Nu

8、ovaCu1tura,2023,https:/www.iai.it/ennode16701.Accordingtoarecentartic1einTheEconomist,the251argest“non-a1igned”countriesthosethathavenotimposedsanctionsonRussiaorwishtoremainneutra1intheSino-Americanconf1ict-represent45percentoftheg1oba1popu1ationandhaveseentheirshareofg1oba1GDPincreasefrom11percent

9、inthe1990sto18percenttoday,surpassingthatoftheEU.ttCantheWestWinOvertheRest?”inTheEconomist,13Apri12023,https:/WWWA1thoughthesecountriesho1dsignificanteconomicpower,theirdiversenationa1interestsmakeitun1ike1yforthemtoactasacohesiveunit.However,theymayfindcommongroundonspecificissues,asevidencedbyOPE

10、C,srecentdecisiontoreduceoi1productiondespiteWesternopposition.MahaE1DahanandAhmedRasheed,OPEC+Anotherareawheretheymightbeincentivisedtofindcommongroundisinreducingg1oba1re1ianceontheUSdo11arandtheWestern-dominatedpaymentsystem.Inthepasttwodecades,theUShassignificant1yincreasedtheuseofeconomicsancti

11、onsasatoo1offoreignpo1icy.Sincetheyear2000,thenumberofsanctionsimposedbytheUShasskyrocketedby933percent.AnnouncesSurpriseOi1OutputCutsn,inThistrendhaspromptedmanycountriesaroundthewor1dtoseeka1ternativemeansofconductinginternationa1transactions,freefromtheriskofbeingtargetedbyUSsanctions.Petrodo11ar

12、s:Signsoffragmentation?Theg1oba1marketforoi1tradingprovidesanotab1eexamp1eoftheexceptiona1statusoftheUSdo11ar.Sincetheear1y1970s,majoroi1-producingcountries,especia11ythoseinOPEC,haveexc1usive1ypricedoi1indo11ars.However,recentdeve1opmentssuggestsma11-sca1eeffortstomoveawayfromthedo11arinthisdomain.

13、InDecember2023,ChinamadeaninvitationtoSaudiArabiaandotherGu1fcountriestosett1etheirbi1atera1oi1-tradetransactionsinyuan.Simi1ar1y,IndiaandRussiaarecurrent1yrenegotiatingtoestab1ishrupeerub1earrangementsforsett1ingtheiroi1-tradetransactions,drivenbytheimpactofWesternsanctions.Countries1ikeRussia,Iran

14、andVenezue1a,whichco11ective1yho1d40percentoftheOPEC+provenoi1reserves,havestrategicincentivestoconsiderswitchingtoyuan-denominatedoi1.Reuters,3Apri12023,https:/www.renters,com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-vo1untary-oi1-output-cuts-2023-04-02.7USDepartmentoftheTreasury,Treas

15、urySanctionsReview2023,October2023,p.2,https:/home.treasury,gov/system/fi1es/136/Treasury-2023-sanctions-review.pdf.RanaForoohar,ANewWor1dEnergyOrderIsTakingShape,inFinancia1Times,3JanuaryIVICOZON。Moreover,anadditiona140percentofprovenoi1reservesbe1ongtotheGu1fCooperationCounci1whosemembers,whi1ehistorica11yc1osetotheUS,havebeenmoreassertiveinvoicingtheirownstanceonimportantregiona1andg1oba1issues.9Thepotentia1effectshou1dnotbeoverestimated,though.Forinstance,evenifa11China,soi1importsweredenominatedinyuan,itwou1don1yaccountfor15-20percentofthefutureg1oba1contracts.10However,itisapro