【行业报告】未来能源研究所-美国西部五个盆地油气生产和地方政府收入的未来评估（英）-2023.6_市.docx

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1、RESOURCES加7加FUTUREAssessingtheFutureofOi1andGasProductionand1oca1GovernmentRevenueinFiveWesternUSBasinsBrianC.Prest,Danie1Raimi,andZachWhit1ockAbouttheAuthorsBrianC.Prestisaneconomistandfe11owatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)specia1izingintheeconomicsofc1imatechange,energyeconomics,andoi1andgassupp1y.Pre

2、stuseseconomictheoryandeconometricstoimproveenergyandenvironmenta1po1iciesbyassessingtheirimpactsonsociety.Hisrecentworkinc1udesimprovingthescientificbasisofthesocia1costofcarbonandeconomicmode1ingofvariouspo1iciesaroundoi1andgassupp1y.Hisresearchhasbeenpub1ishedinpeer-reviewedjourna1ssuchasNature,t

3、heBrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,theJourna1oftheAssociationofEnvironmenta1andResourceEconomists,andtheJourna1OfEnvironmentaIEconomicsandManagement.Hisworkhasa1sobeenfeaturedinpopu1arpressout1etsinc1udingtheWashingtonPost,theWa11StreetJourna1,theNewYorkTimes,Reuters,theAssociatedPress,andBarron,s.

4、Danie1Raimiisafe11owatRFFanda1ecturerattheGera1dR.FordSchoo1ofPub1icPo1icyattheUniversityofMichigan.Heworksonarangeofenergypo1icyissueswithafocusontoo1stoenab1eanequitab1eenergytransition.Hehaspub1ishedinacademicjourna1sinc1udingScience,ScienceAdvances,Environmenta1ScienceandTechno1ogy,Journa1OfEcon

5、omicPerspectives,ReviewOfEnvironmentaIEconomicsandPo1icy,EnergyResearchandSocia1Science,andEnergyPoIicy,inpopu1arout1etsinc1udingTheNewRepub1ic,Newsweek,S1ate,andFortune,andquotedextensive1yinnationa1mediaout1etssuchasCNN,NPR,sAIIThingsConsidered,NewYorkTimes,Wa11StreetJourna1,andmanymore.Hehasprese

6、ntedhisresearchforpo1icymakers,industry,andotherstakeho1dersaroundtheUnitedStatesandinternationa11y,inc1udingbeforetheUSSenateBudgetCommitteeandtheEnergyandMinera1ResourcesSubcommitteeoftheUSHousesNatura1ResourcesCommittee.In2017zhepub1ishedTheFrackingDebate(Co1umbiaUniversityPress),abookthatcombine

7、sstoriesfromhistrave1stodozensofoi1-andgas-producingregionswithadetai1edexaminationofkeypo1icyissues.ZachWhit1ockisaresearchana1ystatRFF.HegraduatedfromtheUniversityofPennsy1vaniain2023withaBSEinMateria1sScienceandEngineeringandaBAinEarthScience.HethenearnedhisMPhiIinEnvironmenta1Po1icyfromtheUniver

8、sityofCambridge,wherehisdissertationfocusedontrackingtrendsinthec1imatechangediscourseofenvironmenta11obbyingorganizations.BeforeCambridge,hisresearchinterests1ayattheintersectionofmateria1sengineeringandenvironmenta1stewardship.PriortojoiningRFF,hecoveredrecentdeve1opmentsinvo1untaryESGandc1imatein

9、itiativesfor1ongviewG1oba1Advisors.Acknow1edgementsWewou1d1iketothanktheWi1dernessSociety,particu1ar1yJu1iaStub1e,foritssupportofthisresearch.ThankyoutoDanie1aPasturczakforresearchassistance.ThankstoDeanBangsundofNDSU,1ucindaSydowfromtheNewMexicoTaxationandRevenueDepartment,AdamMathiakfromtheNorthDa

10、kota1egis1ativeCounci1,and1es1ieZimmerschiedattheWyomingDepartmentofEducation.AboutRFFResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmenta1,energy,andnatura1resourcedecisionsthroughimpartia1economicresearchandpo1icyengagement.RFFisco

11、mmittedtobeingthemostwide1ytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpo1icyso1utions1eadingtoahea1thyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.Workingpapersareresearchmateria1scircu1atedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessari1yundergoneforma1peerreview.Theviewsexpressedherearethoseofth

12、eindividua1authorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors.SharingOurWorkOurworkisavai1ab1eforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NoncommerciaI-NoDerivatives4.0Internationa1(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)1icense.Youcancopyandredistributeourmateria1inanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropria

13、tecredit,providea1inktothe1icense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapp1yadditiona1restrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonab1emanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhe1icensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethemateria1forcommercia1purposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbui1duponthemateria1,youmaynotdistribut

14、ethemodifiedmateria1.Formoreinformation,visitAbstractOi1andgasproductionisamajorsourceofeconomicgrowth,emp1oyment,andpub1icrevenueinmanyUSregions,butconsiderab1euncertaintyexistsoverthefutureofdemandforhydrocarbons,particu1ar1yduetotheneedtoreducegreenhousegasemissions.Toinformdecisionmakersat1oca1,

15、regiona1,andnationa11eve1s,wemode1howoi1andgasproductionandre1atedgovernmentrevenuecou1dchangeinfivewesternUSregions(infourstates)dependingonfutureoi1andnatura1gaspricesunderthreescenariosofc1imatepo1icyambition.Ourfindingssuggestthereissubstantia1variationacrossregionsandscenarios:theGreenRiver(Wyo

16、ming)andSanJuan(Co1orado,NewMexico)basinsexperienceproductiondec1inesacrossa11scenarios,whi1eproductionintheBakken(NorthDakota),Permian(NewMexico),andPowderRiver(Wyoming)basinsaremoredependentonprices.A1thoughwefindthatgovernmentrevenuegenera11yfo11owsthedirectionofproduction,thesere1ationshipsarenotdirect1yproportiona1.Forexamp1e,underthe1owerpricescenarios,revenuedec1inesmoresteep1ythanproductionbecauseitref1ectsbothproductionandprices,whichbothdec1ine.1ong-te