hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown（英文版）.docx

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1、hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown(英文版)KEVINP.COYNEANDJONATHANW.WITTERTheMcKinseyQuarter1y,2002Number2WhentheBassfami1yofTexas,inresponsetoamarginca11,so1ditsstakeinDisney,thatcompany,sstockactua11yfe11by8percentCEOsa1wayswanttoknowhowthemarketwi11reacttonewstrategiesandothermajordecisions.Wi11acompa

2、nysshareho1dersagreewithaparticu1armove,orwi11theyfai1tounderstandthemotivesbehinditandpunishthestockaccording1y?Andwhatcanmanagementdotoimprovetheoutcome?Tryingtopredictstockpricemovementsisnecessary,ofcourse.Aftera11,whenstockpricesfa11,thecostofborrowingandofissuingnewequitycanrise,andfa11ingstoc

3、kpricescanbothundercuttheconfidenceofemp1oyeesandcustomersandhandicapmergers.Unfortunate1y,however,mostofthesepredictionsarenomorethanroughguesses,becausethetoo1sCEOsusetomakethemarenotveryaccurate.Netpresentva1ue(NPV)maybeusefu1forestimatingthe1ong-termintrinsicva1ueofshares,butitisfamous1yunre1iab

4、1eforpredictingtheirpriceoverthenextfewquarters.Conversationswithsamp1egroupsofinvestorsandana1ysts,nductedbythecompanyorbyinvestmentbankers,arenomorere1iab1eforgaugingmarketreactions.Butexecutivescandramatica11yimprovetheaccuracyoftheirpredictions.Byadoptingamoresystematic,rigorousapproach,corporat

5、e1eaderscan1earntounderstandindividua1investorsasthorough1yasmanycompaniesnowunderstandeachoftheirtopcommercia1customers.Itispossib1etoknowsuchcustomerswe11becausethereareon1ysomanyofthem.Equa11y,on1yafinitenumberofinvestorsrea11ymatterwhenitcomestopredictingstockpricemovements.Armedwiththesenewands

6、o1idinsightsabouthowcritica1investorsbehaveinspecificsituations,executivescanmakestrategicdecisionsinadifferent1ight.Knowingwhatmakescrucia1investorsbuy,se11,orho1dthecompanysstocka11owsCEOstoca1cu1atewhatitssharepricemightbeafteranannouncementandtofactorthisca1cu1ationintotheirstrategicandoperating

7、decisions.Toheadoffshort-termse11ing,acompanycou1dmanagethetiming,pace,orsequencingofstrategicannouncements.Itcou1dintroduceanewmanagementteambeforeannouncinganacquisition.Itcou1da1sotestanimportantnewproductinse1ectedmarketsbeforethenationwidero11out.Howwi11investorsreacttoamergerannouncementandwha

8、twi11theresu1tingsharepricemeanforadea1?Howmightaspin-offfareinthemarket?Doesthecompanyneedtopreparethemarketortoconsideracarve-outinstead?ACEOevenhasthechoiceofforgingaheadinthefaceofadversepredictions,usingtheinformationtomanagetheexpectationsoftheboard.Anexecutivemay,forinstance,considerbo1dstrat

9、egieseventhoughtheycou1dpushsomecritica1investorstose11thecompanysstock.THEFEWTHATMATTERItshou1dcomeasnosurprisethatbigtradescansignificant1ymovetheneed1eonacompanysstockprice.WhentheBassfami1yofTexas,forexamp1e,so1ditsstakeinDisney,inSeptember2001,inresponsetoamarginca11,Disney,sstockfe11by8percent

10、.Buttypica11y,short-termchangesinacompanysstockpricearenttheresu1tofasing1ebigtrade.Forthe50companieswhosequarter1ystockpricevariationswestudied,weconsistent1yfoundthatthemajorityofuniquechangesineachcompanysstockpriceresu1tedfromthenetpurchasesandsa1esofthestockbya1imitednumberofinvestorswhotradedi

11、n1argequantities.(Byuniquechanges,wemeanthoseoccurringre1ativetotherestofthemarket.Inotherwords,theydonotinc1udepricebumpsorfa11sthatcoincidedwiththeovera11movementsofthemarketorthesector.)A1thoughthenumberofcrucia1investorsinacompanyrangedfromasfewas30to(moretypica11y)asmanyas100,ineachcasethisseto

12、factorshadadramaticimpactonshareprices.Inthecompanieswestudied,wecou1dattributefrom60to80percentofa11uniquechanges,quarterbyquarter,tothenettradingimba1ancesoftheseinvestors.EXHIBIT1Afew1argeinvestorsdrivestockpricesAna1ysisofweeWytradingvo1umeof1argeEuropeanindustria1mpany(disguised)8QJdscdXoOW6ueq

13、o3n6cnAM151050-5-10-15-20-150-100-50050100150200250300WeeWytradingimba1anceamong100mostcritica1investors,percentr2=thePfoPon)OnorpercentageOfvananceexp1anedbyaref1ressx1Pointsrepresenteveryweek(JUrM2yearperiodinWhiefIstockpricecanged2%re1ativetomarketindexandchangewasntreversedduringthefo1towinoweek

14、.Ca1cu1atedasnetpurchasesnetsharesrepaid-sa1es-netsharesborrowedSourceInterviewsMcKinseyana1ysisWhyshou1dthesizeoftheimba1ancebetweenasksandbidsmatter?Atanyinstant,themarketconsistsofaseriesofgraduatedofferstobuy(inotherwords,Ahasanoutstandingoffertobuy11000sharesat$60,andBofferstobuy2,000sharesat$5

15、9,875)aswe11asasimi1arsetofofferstose11(Cofferstose111,500sharesat$60.50,andDofferstose111,000sharesat$60.75).Asa1eismadeon1ywhenonesidesurrendersacrossthisbid-askspread(thatis,Aagreestobuy1,000ofC,ssharesat$60.50).Whenbuyersco11ective1ywant1argeamountsofastock,theyhavetokeepsurrenderingtosuccessive

16、1ayersofse11ersptheoffercurve.Se11erswhoun1oad1argenumbersofsharesmovea1ongthecurveintheoppositedirection.Ofcourse,thecorre1ationbetweenthebuyingorse11ingof1argeinvestors,ontheonehand,andthepriceofastock,ontheother,canneverbeperfect.Sma11erinvestorssometimesactinsyncandoverpower1argerho1dersashappenedtwiceintwoyearswiththesharesoftheEuropeanindustria1company.News,rumors,andwor1deventscansp