行业报告艾昆纬透视2023年如何开始定义新常态英2023_市场营销策划_重点报告2023.docx

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1、?二三XmW -QWhitePaPerAPerSPeC一一VeOnHOW2023BeganDefmmgtheNeWNOrma-OverviewA shm()y3 -POHIntroductionTheg1oba1pharmaceutica1markethasexperiencedsignificantchangessincetheonsetoftheCOVID-I9pandemic.Whi1etherehavebeenpositivedeve1opmentsintheuseofmedicinesg1oba11y,thevo1umeand1aunchOfinnovativedrugshasstu

2、ttered,andhea1thcaresystemscontinuetofaceconstraints.Unevenrecoveryandstressedhea1thcaresystemsmarkthepost-pandemicpharmaenvironmentIn2023,theg1oba1pharmaceutica1marketwitnessedacontinuationofthesteadyincreaseintheuseofmedicinesasmeasuredbyvo1ume(seeFigure1).Thisincreasehasprimari1ybeendrivenbythege

3、nericssectorduetothecost-containmentmeasuresemp1oyedbynumerouscountries.However,thevo1umeofinnovativemedicinesremainsbe1owpre-pandemic1eve1s,whichispart1yduetobudgetconstraintsanddisruptedcarepathways.Thisraisesconcernsfortheindustry,sabi1itytocontinueintroducinginnovationintothemarketata11pointsint

4、heva1uechain,fromdrugstargetingnove1pathwaystonewde1iverydevices.Thisdec1ineinvo1umehasa1socontributedtos1owersa1esthannorma1.Thetrajectorysa1esofinnovative1aunchesaresha11owerafterthepandemicforabasketof1aunchesintopdeve1opedcountries,reachingagapof-19%onaverage.Figure1:Thechanging1andscapeoftheg1o

5、ba1pharmaceutica1marketInnovative1aunchesstrugg1eVo1umeimprovesEuropeanRxvo1ume(BnSU)DrivenbygenericsG1oba1vo1ume(BnSU)Avg.Month1ysa1esofinnovative1aunches(MnUSD,top8countries)*Source:IQVIAEMEAThought1eadership;IQVIAMIDASDec2023;Rx-on1y,InnovationInsights.Notes:*Pre-COVID1aunches:Jan-15toSep19,Durin

6、gCOV1D1aunchesfrom2023toSep2023,Exc1udesHepCproducts.CountriesinscopeareUS,EU4+UK,Japan&China.Oneofthewaysinwhichpharmaisadaptingisbymodifyingthewaytheyengagewithphysicianssincenationa1pandemic1ockdownsgreat1ydisruptedthisengagement.Overa11contacttimehasnotyetrecoveredinmanyEuropeancountriesbutiscon

7、tinua11yincreasing.Remotemethods,suchaste1ephoneand1ivee-detai1ing,aremorecommonp1ace,anda1thoughface-to-facecontacttimehasincreasedtonearpre-pandemic1eve1s,therearedifferencesbetweenhowcountriesarestabi1isingtoanew-norma1.Theg1oba1prescriptionmarket,asmeasuredin1istprice,grewby8%tonear1y$1.2tri11io

8、nin2023accordingtoIQVIAMonth1yMIDAS(seeFigure2).Thisgrowthrateismirroringthoseseenbeforethepandemicin2023,thegrowthratedippedto5%andnowseemstohavebegunstabi1ising,withthemajorityofgrowthbeingintheUSandEuropeinabso1utetermsandfromspecia1tybio1ogicmedicines.Notethatthesefiguresexc1udeCOVID-19vaccinesa

9、ndtherapeutics.Figure2:Sa1esandgrowthdriversinpharmaUSBJaPanBRoWEU础Pharmerging8%Rxgrowthin2023Source:IQVIAEMEAThought1eadership;IQVIAMIDASMTHDec2023;R-on1y.Notes:Growthratesatconstantexchangerates;Ex-manufacturer1istprices.Exc1udesCOVID-19Vaccinesandtreatments.Theg1oba1prescriptionmarket,asmeasuredi

10、n1istprice,grewby8%tonear1y$1,2tri11ionin2023accordingtoIQVIAMonth1yMIDAS.Onco1ogyremainstheengineofgrowthAcrossa11therapyareasoverthebestpartofadecade,Onco1ogyhasconsistent1yseendoub1e-digitgrowthratesaroundthe15%range.ThisyearweseeOnco1ogygrowingat11%,amoremodestbutbynomeans1owfigure(seeFigure3).T

11、hes1owdowningrowthcanbeattributedtocheckpointinhibitors,prope11ingrapidgrowthoverthepast5years,enteringtheirmaturityphase.TherehasbeenstronggrowthfromImmuno1ogyandDiabetes.Immuno1ogygrowthisproppedupbycontinuousstrongsa1esfromHumira(ada1imumab)andSte1ara(ustekinumab),particu1ar1yintheUS.Asthesetwobr

12、andsface1ossOfexc1usivityoverthenextcoup1eofyears,thisgrowthwi111ike1ys1ow.However,stronggrowthisseenfromSkyrizi(risankizumab)andDupixent(dupi1umab)whichcou1dcoversomeofthegap.WithinDiabetes,thestorycentresonthesuccessfu1C1P-Is,not1eastOzempic(semag1utide),that1ookssettohe1pbringDiabetesto2ndpositio

13、n,overtakingImmuno1ogywithinthenextcoup1eofyearsIfcurrentgrowthratescanbesustained.Figure3:Toptherapyareas(2023,BnUSD)Toptherapyareas(2023bnUSD)20232023Top3TAs65%ofg1oba12023growthSource:IQVIAEMEAThought1eadership;IQVIAMIDASMTHDec2023,R-on1y.Notes:A11va1uesusingConstantExchangeRates.Figure 4: Unmetn

14、eedinonco1ogy(G1oba1,USD)100%80%AreasOfhighestPancreaticunmetneed1iver60%0%BrainOvarian40%20%Mye1oma1eukaemia1adderKidneyHodgkinsNH1SpeartipofinnovationMe1aCoorectaProstateThVroidFa11ing:Checkpointinhibitorsbringingdownmorta1ityMaturing:Sizetoshrinkduetobiosimi1arsandgenerics.Opportunitiesinsub-popu

15、1ationse.g.TNBC152025So1idHaem$5bnBreast05103035404550Incidenceper100k(2023)Source：IQVIAEMEAThought1eadership;Sa1esdatafromIQVIAForecast1inkMarch2023,IncidencedatafromG1oba1CancerObservatory;Morta1itydatafromNIHNCISEER2012-18.Notes:Incidenceratesareagestandardised(ASR);5yearmorta1itydefinedas1minus5yearre1ativesurviva1andinc1udesa11sexes,racesandages;AM1AcuteMye1oid1eukaemia;CMM1:ChronicMye1omonocytic1eukaemia.Morerecent1y,onco1ogytherapieshavebeensuccessfu1indisrupting1argeareasofunmetneed.Whenp1ottedagainstincidenceandmorta1ity(see