行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度工资追踪高工资增长低生产率增长：我们正在经历工资滞胀吗？.docx

《行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度工资追踪高工资增长低生产率增长：我们正在经历工资滞胀吗？.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度工资追踪高工资增长低生产率增长：我们正在经历工资滞胀吗？.docx（7页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchNIESRMonth1yWageTrackerHighWageGrowth,1owProductivityGrowth:AreweExperiencingWageStagf1ation?Pau1aBejaranoCarbo16thMay2023Averageweek1yearnings,exc1udingbonuses,grewby6.7percentacrossthewho1eeconomyinthefirstquarterof2023fin1inewithwhatwehadforecast1astmon

2、th.Theprivateandpub1icsectorssawregu1arpaygrowthof7.0percentand5.6percent,respective1y.Higher-frequencydatasuggeststhatwehaveyettoseeaturningpointinwagegrowth;theKPMGandRECUKReportonJobs,forinstance,recordedafourmonthhighintherateOfstartingpayinf1ationinApri12023.Thecontinuedembeddednessofhighinf1at

3、ionexpectationsinthe1abourmarketthreatenstogeneratefurtherInf1ationarypersistence,posingadi1emmafortheMonetaryPo1icyCommittee.,Pau1aBejaranoCarboAssociateEconomist,NIESRAWE(inchbonuses)privateAWE(inc1.bonuses)pub1icMainPoints The1atestONSestimatessuggesttheannua1growthrateofaverageweek1yearnings,inc

4、1udingbonuses,was5.8percentinthefirstquarterof2023zwhi1epaygrowthexc1udingbonuseswas6.7percent.Ourforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesthesefiguresat5.9and6.0percent,respective1y. Thedisparityinpub1icandprivate-sectorwagegrowthhasfa11enforasixthconsecutivemonth,withprivatesectorregu1arpaygrowing

5、by7.2percentwhi1eregu1arpayinthepub1icsectorgrewby5.5percent.Thatsaidzourforecastseesprivatesectorwagegrowthoutpacingitscounterpartinthesecondquarterof2023. TheONS,spre1iminaryestimateofUKoutputperhourworkedwas0.6percent1owerthanthefirstquarterof2023zrepresentingtheweakestannua1growthinthisestimateo

6、fproductivitysince2013zexc1udingthepandemicperiod.AswestressedinourIateStUKEConOmiCOUt1e)ok,pub1ished1astweek,theUnitedKingdomneedstoseeincreasesinbusinessandpub1icinvestmentasaproportionofGDPinordertotack1eitssta11ingproductivityprob1em.With1aboursupp1ynearingcapacity,itisimperativethatproductivity

7、growsifwearetoseefutureeconomicgrowthandanimprovementto1ivingstandards. Theeconomicinactivityratedecreasedby0.4percentagepointsinfirstquarterof2023zthoughthiswasdrivenbystudentsaged16-24ratherthanthekey50-64agegrouptheChance11orsoughttotargetinhisSpringBudget.Emp1oymentThe1atestdatasuggestthattheemp

8、1oymentrateincreasedby0.2percentagepointscomparedwiththepreviousquarter,risingto75.9percentinthefirstquarterof2023.Theunemp1oymentrateincreasedby0.1percentagepointonthequarterto3.9percent.Risesinbothfiguresmeantheinactivityratehasdecreased.Indeedztheeconomicinactivityratedecreasedby0.4percentagepoin

9、tsinfirstquarterof2023zthoughthiswasdrivenbystudentsaged16-24ratherthanthekey50-64agegrouptheChance11orsoughttotargetinhisSpringBudget.Worrying1yzthenumberofpeop1ereportedtobeinactivebecauseof1ongtermsicknessincreasedtoarecordhigh.The1atestKPMGandRECreDortonJobSnotesthatpreferencesforshort-termstaff

10、continuetoprevai1inthe1abourmarket,whi1epermanentstaffappointmentscontractedatthefastestpaceinovertwoyears.Thisshiftinhiringpracticeisduetoacombinationoffactors,not1eastrisingstartingpayinf1ation-whichhitafour-monthhighinApri1.Thenumberofvacanciesfe11by55z000inthefirstquarterof2023comparedtotheprevi

11、ousquarter,causedbyeconomicpressuresho1dingbackrecruitment.Howeverzwearesti11farfromseeingtheUK1abourmarketcoo1.Infact,arecentreportbyHiring1ab-theeconomicresearchbranchownedbyanduti1isingtheproprietarydataofjob-postingsiteIndeed-notesthatwhi1evacanciescontinuedtosoftenthroughoutthefirstquarterof202

12、3zjobpostingontheirwebsitesti11remained22percentabovetheirpre-pandemic(February2023)figureasof3May.556z000workingdayswere1ostinMarchtoindustria1action.Whi1ethispa1esintoinsignificancecomparedwiththefigureof2.5mi11iondayspermonthrecordedduringthewinterofdiscontentin1979,itisnonethe1essconcerningascon

13、tinuedstrikeactionissettooccurinthecomingmonths.Figure2-Rea1averageweek1yearningsinpub1icandprivatesectorsPayTheannua1growthrateinaverageweek1yearningsinc1udingbonuses(AWE)inGreatBritainwas5.8percentinthefirstquarterof2023and6.7percentifweexc1udebonuses.Highinf1ationexpectationscontinuetodrivethishi

14、ghpaygrowth,withtheBankofEng1ands1atestMonetarVPO1iCVReDOrthigh1ightingthathighandpersistentwageinf1ationposesasignificantupsiderisktotheirinf1ationforecast.TheBankexpectseconomy-widetota1averageweek1yearningstosett1eat5percentinthefourthquarterof2023.Inrea1terms,tota1payfe11by3.0percentontheyeartot

15、hefirstquarterof2023.Asfigure2aboveshowszpub1ic-sectorworkershavefacedaworsehittotheirrea1incomesthanworkersintheprivatesector.Private-sectorregu1arAWEannua1growthwas7.0percentinthefirstquarterof2023and5.9percentifweinc1udebonuses.Ourforecastforthesecondquarterof2023seesthesefiguresat6.1and6.0percen

16、t,respective1y.Pub1ic-sectortota1AWEannua1growthhasbeenonanincreasingpathsincea1owinthethreemonthstoApri12023of1.4percentandiscurrent1ysittingat5.6percentinfirstquarterof2023.Weforecastpub1icsectortota1paygrowthof5.8percentinthesecondquarterof2023,sti11be1owtherecordgrowthof6.4percentobservedinSeptember2001.ProductivityToday,theONSre1easeditspre1iminaryestimatesofUKproductivity,basedontodays1abourmarketdataandt