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1、RESOURCES小加FUTUREEstimatingtheEmissionsReductionsfromSupp1y-sideFossi1Fue1InterventionsBrianC.PrestfHarrisonFe11zDeborahGordon,andTJConwayAbouttheAuthorsBrianC.Prestisaneconomistandfe11owatRFFspecia1izingintheeconomicsofc1imatechange,energyeconomics,andoi1andgassupp1y.Prestuseseconomictheoryandecono

2、metricstoimproveenergyandenvironmenta1po1iciesbyassessingtheirimpactsonsociety.Hisrecentworkinc1udesimprovingthescientificbasisofthesocia1costofcarbonandeconomicmode1ingofvariouspo1iciesaroundoi1andgassupp1y.Hisresearchhasbeenpub1ishedinpeer-reviewedjourna1ssuchasNature,theBrookingsPapersonEconomicA

3、ctivity,theJourna1oftheAssociationofEnvironmenta1andResourceEconomists,andtheJourna1ofEnvironmenta1EconomicsandManagement.Hisworkhasa1sobeenfeaturedinpopu1arpressout1etsinc1udingtheWashingtonPost,theWaHStreetJourna1,theNewYorkTimes,ReutersztheAssociatedPress,andBarro,s.HarrisonFe11isanassociateprofe

4、ssorintheDepartmentOfAgricuIturaIandResourceEconomicsatNorthCaro1inaStateUniversity.Hisresearchfocusesonenvironmenta1,energy,andnatura1resourceseconomics,withanemphasisonpo1icyre1evantwork.Dr.Fe11srecentworkisre1atedtoenergysystemswithafocusonrenewab1eenergy,emissionstradingsystems,ande1ectricityreg

5、u1ation.DeborahGordonisaseniorprincipa1inRMI,sC1imateInte11igenceProgram,wheresheco1eadstheOi1andGasSo1utionsInitiative.Gordonservesasaseniorfe11owattheWatsonInstituteOf1nternationa1andPub1icAffairsatBrownUniversityandisanaffi1iateattheBrownC1imateSo1utions1ab.Herresearchspearheadedthedeve1opmentoft

6、heOi1C1imateIndexp1usGas(OC1+),afirst-of-its-kindana1ytictoo1thatcomparesthe1ife-cyc1ec1imateimpactofg1oba1oi1andgasresources.TheOCI+isthetopicofGordon,snewbook,NoStandardOi1(OxfordUniversityPress,2023).TJConwayisaprincipa1inRMKsC1imateInte11igenceProgram.Hep1aysa1eadingro1eintheOi1andGasSo1utionsIn

7、itiative,workingwitharangeofstakeho1derstohe1pacce1erateoi1andgasfirmsdecarbonizationefforts.Conwayisa1soProfessorofthePracticeatGeorgetownUniversity,whereheteachesanenergycoursethroughthe1andeggerPrograminInternationa1BusinessDip1omacyattheEdmundA.Wa1shSchoo1ofForeignService.Acknow1edgmentsPrestand

8、Fe11gratefu11yacknow1edgethesupportofOnyxTransition.Weappreciatethoughtfu1commentsfromMikeBraun,SethZimring,andDariusNassiry.AboutRFFResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmenta1,energy,andnatura1resourcedecisionsthroughimpar

9、tia1economicresearchandpo1icyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwide1ytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpo1icyso1utions1eadingtoahea1thyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.Workingpapersareresearchmateria1scircu1atedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessari1yundergonefor

10、ma1peerreview.Theviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividua1authorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors.SharingOurWorkOurworkisavai1ab1eforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommerciaI-NoDerivatives4.0Internationa1(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)1icense.Youcancopyandredistributeourm

11、ateria1inanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providea1inktothe1icense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapp1yadditiona1restrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonab1emanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhe1icensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethemateria1forcommercia1purposes.Ifyouremix,tran

12、sform,orbui1duponthemateria1,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmateria1.Formoreinformation,visitAbstractSupp1y-sideinterventionsthatretirehigh1yemittingfossi1fue1assetshavereceivedincreasedattentionfrompo1icymakersandprivateactorsa1ike.Yetconcernsaboutmarket1eakagewhereinreducedsupp1yfromonesourceispart

13、ia11yoffsetbyincreasedproductionfromothersourceshaveraisedquestionsabouthowmuchemissionsreductionstheycanachieve.Inthispaper,weestimatetheeffectsofthesesupp1y-sideinterventionsong1oba1emissions,accountingforbothmarket1eakageaswe11asthere1ativegreenhousegas(GHG)intensityofdifferentsourcesofsupp1y.Wea

14、ccountforuncertaintyinmarket1eakageratesandtheemissionsintensitiesofthecurtai1edandsubstitutesourcesofsupp1ythroughaMonteCar1oana1ysis,drawingonsupp1yanddemande1asticitiesfromtheeconomics1iteratureandemissionsintensitydatafromthestate-of-the-artOi1C1imateIndexp1usGas(OCI+)dataseton586oi1andgasfie1ds

15、aroundthewor1d.Wefindthatthe1ife-cyc1eemissionsreductionsfromsupp1y-sideinterventionsareontheorderofofthegross1ife-cyc1eemissionsofeachbarre1curtai1ed,dependingonthere1ativeemissionsintensityofthecurtai1edandsubstitutesourcesofsupp1y.Further,targetingthemostemissions-intensivesourcesofoi1supp1ycou1d

16、achieveyetfurtheremissionsreductions.HowonecomparesmethaneandCO2emissionsa1sohasimportantconsequencesforwhichsourcestotarget.Contents1. Introduction12. DerivationoftheEmissionsImpactsofSupp1y-sideInterventions52.1. SubstitutiontoOtherFormsofEnergy102.2. WhenCou1d1eakageBeZero?TheCaseofHote11ingDynamics113. EstimatingMarket1eakage123.1. Genera1Princip1esforEstimating1eakageParameters123.2. EstimatesofDemandE1asticities163.3. Estima