行业报告亚开行疫情后世界的贸易便利化与全球价值链英20235_市场营销策划_重点报告2.docx

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1、ADBInstitute.,ADBIWorkingPaperSeriesTRADEFACI1ITATIONANDG1OBA1VA1UECHAINSINAPOST-PANDEMICWOR1DInmacu1adaMartinez-ZarzosoNo.1378May2023AsianDeve1opmentBankInstituteInmacu1adaMartinez-ZarzosoisaprofessorattheUniversityofGoettingenandJaumeIUniversity.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheviewsoftheauthoran

2、ddonotnecessari1yref1ecttheviewsorpo1iciesofADBI,ADBsitsBoardofDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBIdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedatainc1udedinthispaperandacceptsnoresponsibi1ityforanyconsequencesoftheiruse.Termino1ogyusedmaynotnecessari1ybeconsistentwithADBofficia1terms.Discussionpapersar

3、esubjecttoforma1revisionandcorrectionbeforetheyarefina1izedandconsideredpub1ished.TheWorkingPaperseriesisacontinuationoftheformer1ynamedDiscussionPaperseries;thenumberingofthepaperscontinuedwithoutinterruptionorchange.ADBsworkingpapersref1ectinitia1ideasonatopicandarepostedon1inefordiscussion.Somewo

4、rkingpapersmaydeve1opintootherformsofpub1ication.TheAsianDeve1opmentBankrefersto“ChinaasthePeop1e,sRepub1icofChina.Suggestedcitation:Martinez-Zarzoso,I.2023.TradeFaci1itationandG1oba1Va1ueChainsinaPost-PandemicWor1d.ADBIWorkingPaper1378.Tokyo:AsianDeve1opmentBankInstitute.Avai1ab1e:htsdoi.org10.5650

5、6ZYUCF1465P1easecontacttheauthorsforinformationaboutthispaper.Emai1:martineiuji.esAsianDeve1opmentBankInstituteKasumigasekiBui1ding,8thF1oor3-2-5Kasumigaseki,Chiyoda-kuTokyo100-6008,JapanTe1:+81-3-3593-5500Fax:+81-3-3593-5571UR1:www.adbi.orgE-mai1:infoadbi.org2023AsianDeve1opmentBankInstituteAbstrac

6、tTheobjectiveofthispaperistwofo1d.First,itexaminestheeffectsoftheimp1ementationoftradefaci1itation(TF)measuresoninternationa1tradef1owsandonparticipationing1oba1va1uechains(GVCs).Second,itprovidespo1icyrecommendationsfordeve1opingAsiaandthePacificderivedfrommode1estimations.Themainfocusistodisentang

7、1etheeffectivenessofawiderangeofTFactionstakenatacountry1eve1andseewhetherthesehavepavedthewaytowardmoresustainab1etradef1ows.ThedatausedarefromtheUNG1oba1SurveysonDigita1andSustainab1eTradeFaci1itation,covering144countrieswor1dwidefortheyears2015,2017,2019,and2023.Theempirica1estimationsobtainedfro

8、magravitymode1oftradeindicatethatTFmeasuresre1atedtotransparency,institutions,andforma1itiesareofutmostimportance,whereassustainab1eTFactionsaresti11intheirinfancy,andmoredataareneededforapropereva1uationoftheireffectiveness.Moreover,theimp1ementationofTFisre1atedtoreductionsinthetimeandcosttoexport

9、andimportaswe11astoimprovementsin1ogisticperformance.Therearesevera1po1icyrecommendationsandimp1icationsfordeve1opingAsiaandthePacificconcerningTF,trade,andGVCs:first,transparencypo1icieswi11increasetradeinmanufacturedgoodsmorethanproportiona11y,especia11yin1ow-incomecountriesinAsia(suchasAfghanista

10、n,Bang1adesh,Bhutan,Cambodia,1aoPDR,Myanmar,Nepa1,andTimor-1este);second,improvingthequa1ityofTF-re1atedinstitutionswi11fosterparticipationing1oba1va1uechains;andfina11y,forsma11is1andsinthePacific(Kiribati,So1omonIs1ands,Tuva1u,andVanuatu),pub1icinvestmentsdirectedatimprovingtheir1ogisticsperforman

11、cewou1dbeofspecia1re1evance.Keywords:tradefaci1itationagreement,paper1esstrade,transparency,customs,exports,gravitymode1,GVCsJE1C1assification:F13,F14,F60,053Contents1. INTRODUCTION12. 1ITERATUREREVIEW23. DATA,VARIAB1ES,ANDSTY1IZEDFACTS33.1 DataandVariab1es33.2 Sty1izedFacts64. EMPIRICA1STRATEGY94.1

12、 TheGravityMode1ofTrade94.2 EffectofTradeFaci1itationonExportsandGVCs114.3 CostofTradingAcrossCountries125. MAINRESU1TS125.1 Resu1tsfromCountry-1eve1Regressions:Trade,GVC,Cost,andTimetoTrade156. CONC1USIONS20REFERENCES21APPENDIX241. INTRODUCTIONInthe2000s,thewor1deconomyexperiencedasharpincreaseinin

13、ternationa1tradef1ows,aswe11asanincreasingdiversificationoftradedgoodsandservices.Substantia1improvementsininformationtechno1ogyandsustainedeconomicgrowthhavebeenimportantfactorscontributingtothisincreaseintrade(Xing,Genti1e,andDo11ar2023).Inparticu1ar,partofthisnewtradehasbeeninintermediateproducts

14、withthedeve1opmentofg1oba1va1uechains(GVCs).However,thistrendwasinterruptedbytheoutbreakoftheeconomiccrisisof2008-2009andmoresobythatoftheCOVID-19pandemicin2023.Oneconsequenceofthe1attercrisiswasthedisruptionsinGVCsdrivenbythe1ockdownsandthesubsequentwishtore1ocateproductiontonearbycountries.Ontheon

15、ehand,thesedisruptionswerere1atedtothepandemicoutbreakshappeningindifferentcountriessimu1taneous1yandthe1ackofworkersinimportantindustriesre1atedtoGVCs,suchas1ogisticsandtransport.Ontheotherhand,thesephenomenacou1dhaveacce1eratedtheongoingtransformationinthe1ogisticsbranchwithreinforcedsupportforpap

16、er1esstrade,e1ectronicdocuments,andtheautomationofcustomsprocedures.Inre1ationtothis,theratificationoftheTradeFaci1itationAgreementin2017WTOmembersendedtheirnegotiationsatthe2013Ba1iMinisteria1Conferencewiththe1andmarkTradeFaci1itationAgreement(TFA).Theagreemententeredintoforceon22February2017,afteritsratificationbytwothirdsoftheWTOmembers.Seehttps:/www.wto.org/eng1ish/tra