行业报告世界银行商品出口国的财政顺周期性：它能带来多少收益？为什么？英20235_市场.docx

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1、PaUO1nnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndPo1icyResearchWorkingPaper10428Fisca1Procyc1ica1ityinCommodityExportingCountriesHowMuchDoesItPourandWhy?PZOfnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndFranciscorroyoMario1iCar1osA.V喇）mwor1dBankgroupDeve1opmentEconomicsProspectsGroupMay2023Poi.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10428Abstractexportersandthero1eofinsti

2、tutiona1variab1es,thepaperThispaperisaproductoftheProspectsGroup,Deve1opmentEconomics.Itispanofa1argereffortbytheWor1dBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodeve1opmentpo1icydiscussionsaroundthewor1d.Po1icyResearchWorkingPapersarea1sopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatcvegh

3、1jhu.edu;farroyomario1iwor1dbank.org.TIjcPoiityReseork.hiprogresstoencouragetbcexcbanofideasaboutdetvfofimentissues.Anoecthfeoftheseriesisto*/tbtfindingoutquickfy,evNifthepresentationsare1essthanfu11ypo1ished.Thepaperscanythenawtsoftbeauthorsandshou1dbecited(ccorditty.Thefinding,interpretations,andc

4、onc1usionsexpressedinthisp(rareentirr1yt!wse可theauthors.Theydonotnecrssari1yrrprvstrnttheviewsoftheIn1eniationa1bankforReconstructionandDevtiopMen1/Wor1dBankanditsaffi/iatedorganisation/,orthoseoftheFixeeNthvDinctorsoftheWor1dBankortbtpvmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamFisca1procy

5、c1ica1ityincommodityexportingcountries:Howmuchdoesitpourandwhy?*FranciscoArroyoMario1itCar1osA.Vegh:Keyrords:commodityexporters,sea1procyc1ica1ity,sea1po1icy,institutionsJE1codes:F41,F44,H30,Veghwasaconsu1tantattheWor1dBankwhi1ethispaperwaswrittenandisgratefu1totheG1oba1EconomicProspectsGroupforthei

6、rhospita1ityandsupport.TheauthorsthankFranziskaOhnsorge,AyhanKose,AmatAdarov,FrancoDerossiDiaz1aura,Nico1asMagud,GarimaVasishtha,AgustinVe1asquez,TakefumiYamazaki,HamzaZahid,twoanonymousreferees,andseminarparticipantsattheInternationa1MonetaryFundandWor1dBankforinsightfu1commentsandsuggestions,andMu

7、neebAhmadNaseemforexce11entresearchassistance.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheauthors*ownanddonotref1ectthoseoftheWor1dBank(inc1udingitsBoardofDirectorsandthecountriestheyrepresent)orJohnsHopkinsUniversityortheJohnsHopkinsHea1thSystem.Correspondingauthor:FranciscoArroyoMario1i(farroyomario1iwor1db

8、ank.org).tWor1dBankxJohnsHopkinsUniversityandNBER1 IntroductionAsiswe11-knownbynow,fisca1po1icytendstobeprocyc1ica1(i.e.,expansionaryingoodtimesandContraCtiOnaryinbadtimes)inemergingmarketsanddeve1opingeconomies(EMDE)andacyc1ica1/countercyc1ica1inadvancedeconomies(AE).Foranear1yempirica11ookatthefis

9、ca1procyc1ica1ityphenomenon,seeKaminskyeta1.(2004)and,morerecent1y,Franke1eta1.(2013),CarneiroandGarrido(2016),Richaudeta1.(2019),andthereferencestherein.Figure1,updatedfromKaminSkyeta1.(2004),showsthecorre1ationsfortheHP-cyc1ica1componentsofGDPandgovernmentspendingfor189countries(152EMDEand37AE)for

10、theperiod1980-2023.SeeTab1eAifordetai1s.AsShoWnbyVeghandVu1etin(2015),thesamepatternemergesonthetaxationsidebasedonanana1ysisoftaxrates.RedbarsidentifyEMDEandb1ackbarsAE.Apositivecorre1ationindicatesprocyc1ica1ity,whi1eanegativerre1ationindicatescountercyc1ica1ity.Thevisua1impressionisstriking.Wesee

11、a1argeredmassontheright-sideofthefigurei11ustratingthefactthat,onaverage,mostEMDEhavebeenprocyc1ica1overthepast40years.Incontrast,mostb1ackbars1ieonthe1eft-sideofthepicture,indicatingthatindustria1countrieshavebeentypica11ycountercyc1ica1.Theaveragecorre1ationforEMDEis0.42(andsignificantatthe1percen

12、t1eve1).ForAE,theaverageiss1ight1ynegativebutnotsignificant1ydifferentfromzero.Procyc1ica1fisca1po1icyinEMDEthusamp1ifiesana1readyvo1ati1ebusinesscyc1e(especia11yinemergingmarkets).Asgovernmentspendingoftenspira1soutofcontro1ingoodtimes,theinabi1itytoborrowinbadtimesmakestheinevitab1eadjustmentevenm

13、orepainfu1.Ironica11y,fisca1po1icythusbecomesasourceofinstabi1ity,contrarytoitsintendedstabi1izingro1einaKeynesianwor1d.Thero1eoffisca1po1icyasapossib1esourceofmacroeconomicinstabi1ityisparticu1ar1yre1evantincommodityexporters,giventhesignificantresponseoffisca1variab1estocommodityshocks.Inanear1ypo

14、1icyana1ysis,Cuddington(1989)examinesfisca1managementinfivedeve1opingcountries(Co1ombia,Cameroon,Kenya,Nigeria,andJamaica)inthe1970sinresponsetocommoditypricebooms.Whi1eCo1ombiaandCameroonavoided1argeincreasesinfisca1revenuesandgovernmentexpenditures,fisca1authoritiesintheotherthreecountriesessentia

15、11y1ostcontro1overpub1icfinances,withgovernmentspendingincreasingmarked1yasaproportionofGDPandactua11ysurpassingtheincreaseinrevenues,1eadingtohigherfisca1deficitsandoftenmoreforeignborrowing.The1ackofbudgetarycontro1frequent1y1edtofu11-b1ownfisca1crises.Morerecent1y,andusingthesameDutch-diseaseconc

16、eptua1frameworkinmodernVARc1othes,Pieschacon(2012)revisitsCuddington1Sana1ysisforMexicoandNorwayandconc1udesthat,inthecaseofNorway,discip1inedfisca1managementwaswe1fare-improvingwhi1e,inthecaseofMexi,anundiscip1inedfisca1response1edtoawe1fare-reducingresponse.Othercontributionsthatbui1donCuddington1S(1989)ana1ysisoffisca1instabi1ity,oftenint