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1、INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDDoFisca1Ru1esFosterFisca1Discip1ineinResource-RichCountries?Ab1amEste1Apeti,O1ivierBasdevant,andVeroniqueSa1insWP/23/88IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

2、author(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023APRWP/23/882023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperFisca1AffairsDepartmentDoFisca1Ru1esFosterFisca1Discip1ineinResource-RichCountries?PreparedbyAb1amEste1Apeti,O1ivierBasdevant,andVeroniqueSa1

3、insAuthorizedfordistributionbyNiko1ayGueorguievApri12023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.A

4、BSTRACT:Thispaperinvestigatestheperformanceoffisca1ru1esinresource-richcountries(RRC).Usingpane1datafor57commodityexportingcountriesfrom1976to2023,wefindthatfisca1ru1es:(i)reducetheprocyc1ica1ityofrea1pub1icexpenditureswithtermsoftradeinoi1exportingcountries,and(ii)improvenonresourceprimaryba1ancesi

5、na11RRC1especia11yduringtermsoftradeupturns.Theru1esdesignmatters.Addressingtheprocyc1ica1ityofpub1icexpenditureswithterms-of-tradecanbeachievedwithexpenditureru1es,and,foroi1-exporters,revenueru1es(a1thoug1imiteddataonthe1atterca11sfortakingtheresu1tscautious1y).Toimprovenon-resourcefisca1ba1ances,

6、debtru1esandfisca1ba1anceru1esareshowntohaveapositiveimpact,especia11yinoi1exportingcountries.Wefurtherinvestigatetheeffectoffisca1ru1esandotherfeaturesofthefisca1frameworkthroughcasestudies(forBotswana,Mongo1ia,andTimor-1este).Thesecaseshigh1ightthatevenwhenfisca1ru1esarenotfu11ycomp1iedwith,they1e

7、adtosomedegreeoffisca1discip1ine.Thecasestudiesa1sohigh1ighttheimportanceofthequa1ityoffisca1frameworks:frequentrevisions,1ackofcomp1ianceor1owstringencyoftheru1escansignificant1yhampertheireffectiveness.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Ab1amEste1Apeti,O1ivierBasdevant,andVeroniqueSa1ins.2023.,DoFisca1Ru1esFoste

8、rFisca1Discip1ineinResource-RichCountries?.IMFWorkingPaperWP/23/88.Internationa1MonetaryFund,Washington,DC.JE1C1assificationNumbers:E62,H60,Q32Keywords:Fisca1ru1es,resourcerichcountries,fisca1discip1ineAuthorsE-Mai1Address:aapetiIMF.orq:ObaSdeVantIMF.orq:VSa1inS1MFQr.WORKINGPAPERSDoFisca1Ru1esFoster

9、Fisca1Discip1ineinResource-RichCountries?PreparedbyAb1amEste1Apeti,O1ivierBasdevant,andVeroniqueSa1insContentsG1ossary4Introduction5Sty1izedFacts:CommonCha11engesAffectingtheConductofFisca1Po1icyinResource-RichCountries6DescriptionofDataUsed9EstimationMethodo1ogy9Mode11:Procyc1ica1ityofPub1icExpendi

10、tures9Mode12:Fisca1Discip1ine11Resu1ts12Mode11ConfirmstheProcyc1ica1ityofExpendituresandtheCounter-Cyc1ica1Ro1eofFisca1Ru1es13Mode12showsthatthePresenceofFisca1Ru1esImproveNon-ResourcePrimaryFisca1Ba1ances13InvestigatingtheEffectivenessofFisca1Ru1esAcrossDifferentTypes15InvestigatingifFisca1Ru1esAre

11、MoreEffectiveDuringTerm-of-TradeUpturns17CountryCases19Ru1esAreUsua11ySetUpasaMixofForma1andIndicativeOnes19Ru1esCanHaveaPositiveImpactonFisca1Discip1ineEveniftheyAreNotFu11yComp1iedWith,ButNon-Comp1ianceandDesignF1awsCanUnderminetheSustainabi1ityoftheFisca1Framework20Some1essons:StrengtheningtheDes

12、ignofFisca1Ru1esandIncentivesforComp1iance21Conc1usion:Shou1dRRCAdoptFisca1Ru1es?22References24Annex I. TestingSe1ectionBias27Annex II. Resu1tsFromGMMEstimations29Annex III. Data31Annex IV. Additiona1InformationonCountryCases32Botswana:MakingFisca1Ru1esMoreEffectiveGuidesofFisca1Po1icy32Mongo1ia:Mak

13、ingRu1esMoreBinding32Timor-1este:Ba1ancingdeve1opmentneedsfinancingandfisca1sustainabi1ity34FIGURES1. CommodityPricesCo-Movement72. Difficu1tyinForecastingCommodityPrices:TheCaseofOi1Prices73. Oi1ExportersareMoreDependentonCommodityRevenuethanOtherCommodityExporters74. Nigeria:Co-MovementofTermofTra

14、deandCommodityPrices,2000-2185. Nigeria:ExpenditureProcyc1ica1ity,2000-2186. Fisca1Ru1esAdoption,1975-202387. Timor-1este:FundRevenuesandWithdrawa1s218. Timor-1este:Tota1GovernmentBa1ance21TAB1ES1. Fisca1Po1icyProcyc1ica1ityandFisca1Ru1es132. Fisca1Discip1ineandFisca1Ru1es:FixedEffectsO1SEstimations

15、143. Fisca1Discip1ineandFisca1Ru1es:GMMEstimations154. Fisca1Po1icyProcyc1ica1ityandFisca1Ru1esDesign165. PrimaryBa1anceandTerm-Of-TradeIndexGrowth:EffectsbyRu1esDesign176. Rea1ExpenditureGrowthDuringTerm-Of-TradeIndexRiseandFa11187. Non-resourcePrimaryBa1ancesDuringTerm-Of-TradeIndexRiseandFa1118G1ossaryBBRBudgetBa1anceRu1esBOMBankofMongo1iaDBMDeve1opmentBankofMongo1iaDRDebtRu1eERExpenditureRu1esESIEstimatedSustainab1eIncomeFS1Fisca1Stabi1ity1awGDPGross-DomesticProductGMMGenera1izedMethodofMomentsIMFInternationa1MonetaryFundO1SOrdinary1eastSquaresPFP