行业报告IMF需求与否：对CBDC未来需求的量化_市场营销策划_重点报告20230501_do.docx

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1、WoRK-NGPAPERINTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDMonetaryPo1icyImp1icationsofCentra1BankDigita1CurrenciesPerspectivesonJurisdictionswithConventiona1andIs1amicBankingSystemsInutu1ukongaWP/23/60IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.Theviewsexpr

2、essedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2023MARWP/23/602023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperMonetaryandCapita1MarketsDepartment(MCM)MonetaryPo1icyImp1icationsCentra1BankDigita1Currencies:PerspectivesonJurisdic

3、tionswithConventiona1andIs1amicBankingSystemsPreparedbyInutu1ukongaTheauthorwou1d1iketothankMessrs.AmmarAhmed,TohidAtashbar,GermanVi11egasBauer,MarianneBechara1TomBernhardsen1SnorreEvjen,StephanieForte,ShafiqGhawi,F1oridaGimbe11Care1Hugo,GregorioImpavido,NachegaJean-C1aude,ArneK1oster,Michae11aw.Ash

4、1ey1annquist1RumitPancho1i1Er1endWa1terNier1RyanRiza1dy,NadineSchwarz,FaithStewart,ChiaYiTan,andHerveTourpefortheexce11entcomments.AuthorizedfordistributionbyTommasoManciniGriffo1iMarch2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.The

5、viewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Centra1bankdigita1currencies(CBDCs)promisemanybenefitsbut,ifnotwe11designed,theycou1dhaveundesiredconsequences,inc1udingformonetarypo1icy.Issuinganunremunerat

6、edCBDCorawho1esa1eCBDCdoesnotchangetheobjectivesofmonetarypo1icyortheoperationa1frameworkformonetarypo1icy.CBDCscan,however,inducechangesintheretai1,who1esa1eandcrossborderpaymentsthathavenegativespi11overeffectsonmonetarypo1icy,throughtheireffectsonmoneyve1ocity,bankdepositdisintermediation,vo1ati1

7、ityofbankreserves,currencysubstitution,andcapita1f1ows.Countriesmostvu1nerab1earethosewithbankingsystemsdominatedbysma11retai1depositsanddemanddeposits,1ow1eve1sofdigita1paymentsandweakmacrofundamenta1s.ProposedCBDCdesignfeatures,suchascapsonCBDCho1dingsandunremuneratingtheCBDCcanmoderatedisintermed

8、iationrisks,buttheyarenotsufficient.Centra1bankswi11needtoensurethatunintendedmacroeconomicrisksarecomprehensive1yidentifiedandmitigated.JE1C1assificationNumbers:C72,C73,D4,E41,E42,E52,E58,032,033,G211186Keywords:Centra1BankDigita1Currencies;CBDC;CBDCPi1ots;MonetaryPo1icy;Is1amicFinanceAuthorsE-Mai1

9、Address:i1ukongaimf.orgContentsG1ossary3Introduction4CBDCDesignOptions,IntrinsicRiskstoMonetaryPo1icy,andCountryChoices6DesignOptionsandtheirImp1icationsforMonetaryPo1icy6CrossCountryTrendsandChoices8MonetaryPo1icyImp1icationsofIssuingCBDCs10MonetaryPo1icyFrameworksandTransmissionChanne1s10HowCBDCsI

10、mpactMonetaryPo1icyImp1ementationandTransmission12Retai1CBDCs13Who1esa1eCBDCs17CrossBorderUseofCBDCs19StrengthandSpeedoftheImpactonMonetaryPo1icy20Retai1CBDCs1DepositDisintermediationandChangestoMoneyVe1ocity20W-CBDCs,TokenizationandFinancia1MarketSegmentation28Cross-BorderUseofCBDCs1CurrencySubstit

11、utionandCapita1F1owVo1ati1ity28Imp1icationsforJurisdictionswithIs1amicBanks30OverviewofIs1amicFinancia1SystemsandMonetaryPo1icyFrameworks30Sharia,hPrincip1esandCBDCDesigns33Potentia1ImpactonMonetaryPo1icyImp1ementationandTransmission34Conc1usionsandPo1icyStrategies35References39BOXES1. TaxonomyofRet

12、ai1CBDCDesigns372. TheQuantityTheoryofMoneyandMoneyDemand38FIGURES1. CBDCDesignOptions62. RiskstoMonetaryPo1icyInherentinCBDCDesigns73. StatusofCBDCProjectsAroundtheWor1d84. TrendsbyTypeofCBDCs95. DistributionofCountriesbyNomina1Anchor116. Operationa1FrameworksforMonetaryPo1icy127. Channe1sthroughwh

13、ichCBDCsImpactMonetaryPo1icy138. MainSystemsUsedfor1argeVa1uePayments189. ChangesinCurrencyinCircu1ationtoGDP2410. CashasaRatioofMoneySupp1y2511. PenetrationofDebit,CreditCardsandATMs2512. Techno1ogica1Deve1opmentsandMoneyVe1ocity2613. Jurisdictionswith1argeIs1amicBankingSectorandShareofUnremunerate

14、dAccounts3114. MonetaryPo1icyRegimesinCountrieswithIs1amicBanks3215. MonetaryPo1icyTransmissioninJurisdictionswithIs1amicBankingSystems3316. Ba1anceSheetStructureofIs1amicBanks34TAB1ES1. Ba1anceSheetEffectsofExchangingCashforCBDCs142. Ba1anceSheetEffectsofSubstitutingBankDepositsforCBDCs153. Ba1ance

15、SheetImpactofCentra1BankOperationstoCompensatefortheDec1ineinDeposits174. Sty1izedBa1anceSheetInvo1vingW-CBDC17G1ossaryAtomicSett1ementAconditiona1sett1ementthatoccursifde1iveryandpaymentarebothreceivedatthesametime.App1icationprogramminginterface(API)Ru1esandspecificationsfo11owedbysoftwareprogramstocommunicatewitheachother,andaninterfacebetweendifferentsoftwareprogramsthatfaci1itatestheirinteraction.Distributed1edgerArecordoftransactionshe1dacrossanetworkofcomputers(nodes),ratherthanstoredinacentra11ocation.Distributed1edgerTechno1ogy(D1T)Protoco1sandsupportinginfrastructuret