亚开行-亚洲发展展望（ADO）2023年12月：经济增长加快价格压力缓解（英）-2023.12_市.docx

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1、HIGHLIGHTS Developing Asia,s outlook remains solid despite global challenges. The 2023 growth forecast is revised up from Asian Development Outlook September2023s projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is maintained at 4.8%. East Asia,s growth forecast for 2023 i

2、s revised up to 4.7% on higher-than- expected third quarter growth in the Peoples Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%. South Asia,s projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by Stronger- than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024. Growth forec

3、asts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand. The Caucasus and Central Asia,s 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expectations of faster growth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightl

4、y to 4.6%. The Pacific,s growth projections are unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, on the continued recovery of international tourism and the resumption of public infrastructure projects. Developing Asia,s inflation is forecast to decline from 4.4% last year to a downward-adjusted 3.5% th

5、is year, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024. Downside risks are mainly associated with higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, which could trigger financial instability. Possible supply disruptions from El Nino and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could renew energy and food secur

6、ity challenges, and rekindle inflation.GROWTH UPBEAT5 PRICE PRESSURES EASINGRecent DevelopmentsDeveloping Asia,s growth has been upbeat this year despite persistent headwinds. Healthy domestic demand, strong remittances, and recovering tourism are underpinning economic activity, which continued to e

7、xpand even as inflation moderated. These drivers OffSetthe drag from Slowerglobal growth and the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, and they are expected to continue fostering growth in the region next year. Various factors weigh on the outlook, however, including higher-for-longer global

8、 interest rates, property market weakness in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), and softer demand from advanced economies.The economic performance in the major advanced economies has diverged, and oil prices remain volatile. The likelihood of a soft landing in the United States has increased. Gros

9、s domestic product (GDP) in the US continued to expand in the first half of 2023 and surprised on the upside in the third quarter (Q3). Growth accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) of 5.2% in the quarter, spurred by a rapid increase in spending on goods and services (box). Desp

10、ite a tight labor market, headline inflation continued to decelerate, slowing to 3.2% in October, and personal consumption expenditure inflation fell to 3.0% in the same month. Core inflation, however, has decelerated more slowlyThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) Regional Economic OutIookTask Force le

11、d the preparation of a revised outlook for this Asian Development Outlook. The task force is chaired by the Economic Research and Development Impact Department and includes representatives of the Central and West Asia Department, East Asia Department, Pacific Department, South Asia Department, and S

12、outheast Asia Department. ADB placed its regular assistance to Afghanistan on hold effective 15 August 2021. Effective I February 2021, ADB placed a temporary hold on sovereign project disbursements and new contracts in Myanmar.ADRand, at 4.0%, is still double the Federal Reserves 2.0% target. In co

13、ntrast to the buoyant US economy, growth in the euro area, while remaining positive in the year to date, has slowed. Growth in the currency union contracted by 0.4% saar in Q3, depressed by high interest rates and sticky inflation. Leading indicators of economic activity suggest continued weakness i

14、n Q4 across the euro area,s major economies. Japan,s modest recovery in tourism and services was OffSet by subdued private investment, causing the economy to stagnate in Q3. Oil prices were volatile in October following the onset of the current conflict in the Middle East. The Brent crude oil price

15、rose to $94.39/ barrel on 19 October but fell below $80/barrel in the second half of November, as concerns over slowing global demand outweighed the risk of the conflict escalating.Growth in developing Asia accelerated to 5.0% in the year to date, buoyed by the PRC,s continued post-pandemic reopenin

16、g and healthy domestic demand across the region (Figure 1). Strong services continue to be the main driver of growth in the PRC, OffSetting a downturn in the property sector. Supported by policy measures to sustain consumption, industry, and the housing market, growth picked up to a faster-than- expected 4.9% in Q3. The PRC economy expanded by 5.2% in the first 3 quarters of the year, up from 3.0% for the whole of 2022, despite th