CBRE-政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

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1、CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether iriex* linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime reel estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023Intelligent InvestmentAre Government or corporate bond yields a better benchmark for UK rea

2、l estate pricing?Prime reel estate vlds rose in the last 18 rnoms. but SDrMdS over nominal and reel GiK yields/ Key takeaways-Prime reel MM yields rose in the last 18 months to reflect the Chdnaed interest rate erwfonmet but the scxed between rxrne yields and 1Oyec Government bond yields remains h(

3、ComDared with the last decadeCurrent DdCina mht IOOk unfavourable based on these COmgriSof but history shows the oosAion can chance QUiCkly-Small SDiwfo w rmtinl Government bond Vicktowere observed during the Global Financial Crisis of 27-0. but they Wefe &so Commonotoce before this, with ta Ihownec

4、lotv corresoorxlentt with real estate yields since these investments, like real estate, offer a sk premium relative to Government bonds The yields for B88 UK COCD(XMe bonds have risen above crime real estate yields, , JI-Current reel estate txidn might look utavourbl bttd on these CornDartSOns. but

5、story shows that the position can caoe quckfy. ard pressures on re estate will ease if longterm interest rates start falln reflection of declmn UK inflaton rate and an end to the rate rsn cycleHave spreads been more consistent between real estate yields and these other measures, and do such comparis

6、ons Siisgest that a tighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be SUSiained going forward?Intlv(ioThe UK has seen a sustained rise in both short-term and ongtorm interest rates over the last two years. This followed a decade in which the Bank of England base rate was below IX borrowing

7、costs were tvDcalv VerV low. and Government bond yields were also very low. supported by a programme of quantitative easing.OVef that same decacte. a wide margin existed between real estate yields and Government bond ViekK Hence what miht be the ImDlledtionS for UK real estate DCiCinQ from recent ri

8、ses in Government and corporate bond yields, and how far do real estate yields have to rise to reflect the changed financial environment?Tighter spreads between UK rei estate yields and nominal Government bond yields have been observed in the oast but these might have resulted from different investo

9、r expectations about cash flow growth or differences in the risk DremiUm reuired for real estate investmentWe explore some of the advantages and challenges of Comoaring real estate yields against index-linked GoVefnfnmt bond yields, and rpaate bond yields as atternatives to nominal Government bonds.

10、 Have spreads been more consistent between real estate yields and these other measures, and do such comparisons WgeStthat a tighter spread over nominal Gvernent bend yields couM be sustained going forward?Nominal Gih yieldsTarget return rates for priw real estate investments should reflect the risk-

11、free rate of return. DiUS a premium for bearn the risks associated with real estate, but investors do not need to receive their target return rate from current income if the future cash flows from real estate investments are expected to rise. Therefore, the yield they receive initially can be lower

12、than their target rate This means that yields will be influenced not ov bv risk-free rates and risk (XemiUm$, but also by growth expectations.The most common IXOXV for a risk-free rate in analysis of UK commercial ral estate is the rectemoth and the hoWing periods used S many real estate asset valua

13、tions. 1Oear Gitts are rot theocetcafy rskfree, but they are a relative*/ rskfree alternative to investing in commerciai red estate.Figure 11Rustrates the ield for Kyear Gfts aoainst an M property prime yield over the last 35 VW The all property yield is constructed as a composite of prime yields recoccted by CBRE for the hgh street retail, office, and industrial sectors of the UK real estate marketThis comoaso shows that the SDCead between real estate vds and IOvear nominal Glt VieWS has varied a lot over time. The averoe spread since 2013 has been 25IbOX but was OnIV 86bos in