IMF-重新评估统计缺陷国家的GDP增长——以土库曼斯坦为例（英）-2023.10_市场营销策划_重.docx

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1、WoRK-NGPAPERINTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDReassessingGDPGrowthinCountrieswithStatistica1ShortcomingsACaseStudyonTurkmenistanOmerE.Bayar31evanGogoberishvi1iWP/23/207IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPape

2、rsarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2023SEPWP/23/2072023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperMidd1eEastandCentra1AsiaDepartmentReassessingGDPGrowthinCountrieswithStatistica1Shortcomings-ACaseStudyonTurkmenistanPreparedbyOmerE.Baya

3、r,1evanGogoberishvi1i*AuthorizedfordistributionbyIvaPetrovaSeptember2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

4、orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Re1iab1enationa1accountsareessentia1forpropereconomicana1ysesandinformedpo1icymakingbynationa1authoritiesaswe11asotherstakeho1ders.Neverthe1ess,inmanycountries,nationa1accountsstatisticsaresubjecttoseriousshortcomings,whichareoftenmanifestedasoverestimatedgrowthrates.Incases

5、whereofficia1dataarenotadequateforsurvei11ance,IMFstaffcompi1ea1ternativeestimatesbyapp1yingvariousforecastingmethods.Thisstudyproposesamoreho1istic,bottom-upapproach,whichisbasedonthecompi1ationofGDPbytheexpendituremethodwith1imitedsourcedata.Thestudya1sodiscussesthecaseofTurkmenistan,wherethismeth

6、odwasimp1ementedinpractice.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Bayar,O.andGogoberishvi1i,1.,2023,“ReassessingGDPGrowthinCountrieswithStatistica1Shortcomings-ACaseStudyonTurkmenistan,)IMFWorkingPaper23/207.JE1C1assificationNumbers:C82,E01,N15Keywords:GDP;nationa1accounts;growthestimates;datashortcomingsAuthorsE-Mai1

7、Address:Obayarimf.orq;IQOQoberiShVi1iiiTIfQrQWearegratefu1forgenerouscommentsandfeedbackbyIvaKrastevaPetrova,JamesJohn,Giu1io1isi,NorbertFunke,RichardJamesWi1d,andJeanvanHoutte.Specia1thankstoNata1iaTamirisa5Jean-FrancoisWen,FatenSa1iba,andAmineYaaqoubifortheirguidanceandana1ytica1inputs.WORKINGPAPE

8、RSReassessingGDPGrowthinCountrieswithStatistica1ShortcomingsACaseStudyonTurkmenistanPreparedbyOmerE.Bayarand1evanGogoberishvi1iContentsG1ossary3ExecutiveSummary4I. Introduction5II. Methodo1ogyandDataSources6III. CaseStudyonTurkmenistan(2008-2023)11IV. Conc1usion21AnnexI.Turkmenistan:MainEvents22Refe

9、rences24G1ossaryBEC:BroadEconomicCategoriesBIS:BankforInternationa1Sett1ementsBOP:Ba1anceofpaymentsCCA:CaucasusandCentra1AsiaCPI:ConsumerpriceindexGDP:GrossdomesticproductHS:HarmonizedSystem(a.k.a.HarmonizedCommodityDescriptionandCodingSystem)PMER:Para11e1-marketexchangeratesSNA:SystemofNationa1Acco

10、untsUNComtrade:UnitedNationsCommodityTradeStatisticsDatabaseExecutiveSummaryRe1iab1eofficia1statistics,inparticu1arnationa1accountsdata,1ieatthecoreofsoundeconomicana1ysesandpo1icymaking,whichinturn,isthekeytobui1dingstrong,sustainab1e,andba1ancedeconomies.Manycountrieshoweversufferfromtheshortcomin

11、gsintheirGDPstatistics,comp1icatingtheeffortstocomeupwithap1ausib1enarrativeabouttheeconomyandthus,1eadingtopo1icymistakes.Incases,wheredatashortcomingsareparticu1ar1ysevere,independentana1ysts,inc1udingIMFstaff,occasiona11ycompi1ea1ternativeestimatesofGDPgrowthbyreferringtoexterna1datasourcesandapp

12、1yingvariousforecastingmethods.However,mostoftheseestimatescaptureon1yasingu1araspectoftheeconomy,therebyofferinga1imiteddegreeofconfidenceontheoutcomes.Inanattempttoaddressthisgap,thisstudyproposesaho1istic,bottom-upapproach,whichisbasedonthecompi1ationofGDPbytheexpendituremethodwith1imitedsourceda

13、ta.Morespecifica11y,thispaperarguesthatimports-astheyrepresentasizab1eshareoftheeconomicactivityinmanycountriesandthattheyare1inkedtotheactivitytrendsinvarioussectors-cou1dconstituteareasonab1ebasisforestimatingGDPinopeneconomies.Dataontradedgoodshaveanotherana1ytica1vantagepointastheycanbeverifiedb

14、ycounter-partytradestatisticsatthebi1atera1(e.g.,customsdatabytradingpartners)ormu1ti1atera11eve1(e.g.,UNComtradedatabase).Therefore,theproposedana1ytica1temp1atefo11owstheHarmonizedSystemtoc1assifytradedproductsand1inksthevo1umechangesinimportedinputstotheoutputgrowthinre1atedsectors.Thepapera1sofe

15、aturesanapp1icationofthistemp1atewithacasestudyonTurkmenistan,inc1udingsevera1robustnesscheckstotestthere1iabi1ityofthefindings.Thiscasestudyattemptsfurthertoaddressthecha11engesofestimatingdef1atorsbycapturingprice(andexchangerate)deve1opmentsinboththeforma1andtheinforma1economy.Giventhepotentia11y

16、contentiousnatureofcompi1inga1ternativeGDPestimates,maintaininganopencommunicationchanne1withthecountryauthoritiesiscritica1,inc1udingbyensuringthetransparencyofthemethodo1ogica1underpinningsandthepotentia1sourcesofinformation.Theobjectiveofthisexerciseistocomp1ementofficia1statisticsandfaci1itatea1ignmentofdomesticstatistica1methodo1ogieswithinternationa1bestpractices