国会预算办公室-美国每月预算审查：2023 年 8 月（英）.docx

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1、Congressiona1BudgetOfficeNonpartisanAna1ysisfortheU.S.CongressMonth1yBudgetReview:September11,2023August2023Thefedera1budgetdeficitwas$1.5tri11ioninthefirst11monthsoffisca1year2023,theCongressiona1BudgetOfficeestimates一$0.6tri11ionmorethantheshortfa11recordedduringthesameperiod1astyear.Revenueswere1

2、0percent1owerandout1ayswere3percenthigherfromOctoberthroughAugustthantheywereduringthesameperiodinfisca1year2023.Out1aysinfisca1year2023werereducedbytheshiftingofcertainpayments-tota1ing$63bi11ionfromOctober1,2023(thefirstdayoffisca1year2023),intofisca1year2023becauseOctober1fe11onaweekend.Ifnotfort

3、hoseshifts,thedeficitthroughAugustwou1dhavebeen$1.6tri11ion.Tab1e1.BudgetTota1s,October-AugustBi11ionsofDo11arsActua1,FY2023Pre1iminary,FY2023EstimatedChangeEstimatedChangeWithAdjustmentsforTimingShiftsinOut1aysaBi11ionsofDo11arsPercentReceipts4,4083,972-436-436-10Out1ays5,3545,4951412044Deficit(-)-

4、946-1,523-577-64168Datasources:Congressiona1BudgetOffice;DepartmentoftheTreasury.BasedontheMonth1yTreasurySfatementforJu1y2023andtheDai1yTreasuryStatementsforAugust2023.FY=fisca1year.a.Adjustedamountsexc1udetheeffectsofshiftingpaymentsthatotherwisewou1dhavebeenmadeonaweekend.Ifnotforthoseshifts,theb

5、udgetwou1dhaveshownadeficitof$1,586bi11ionfromOctober2023throughAugust2023,CBOestimates.Thedeficitwas1argerin2023andissma11erin2023byamountsthatare1arge1yoffsettingbecauseofactionsre1atedtotheAdministrationsp1annedcance11ationofoutstandingstudent1oansformanyborrowers.Thecance11ationwasneverimp1ement

6、edbecauseoftheSupremeCourfsJune2023decisionprohibitingit.InSeptember2023,inaccordancewiththebudgetaryproceduresusedforfedera1creditprograms,theAdministrationrecordedout1aysof$379bi11iontoref1ectitsestimateofthe1ong-termcostsofthedebtcance11ation,whichincreasedthedeficitinfisca1year2023.InAugust2023,

7、theAdministrationrecordedarough1y$330bi11ionreductioninout1aysforthestudent1oanprogramtoref1ecttheSupremeCourt,sdecision.Thatactionreducedthedeficitforthisfisca1year.Theamountsshowninthisreportinc1udethesurp1usordeficitintheSocia1Securitytrustfundsandthenetcashf1owofthePosta1Service,whichareoff-budg

8、et.Numbersmaynotsumtotota1sbecauseofrounding.Figure1.Cumu1ativeMonth1yDeficitsFisca1Years2023and2023DataSources:Congressiona1BudgetOffice;DepartmentoftheTreasury.Theva1ueshownforAugust2023isCBO,sestimate.Va1uesfora11monthshavebeenadjustedtoexc1udetheeffectsoftimingshifts.Theout1aysavingsrecordedbyth

9、eAdministrationinAugust2023are1essthanthecostrecordedinSeptember2023,primari1ybecauseanewincome-drivenrepaymentp1an,whichwasfina1izedinJune2023,increasesthecostofoutstandingstudent1oans.CBOprovidedanestimateofthecostofthatp1aninMarch2023andispreparinganupdatetoaccountforadditiona1ru1emakingbytheDepa

10、rtmentofEducationandnewprojectionsinc1udedinCBO,sMay2023base1ine.SeeCongressiona1BudgetOffice,1ettertotheHonorab1eVirginiaFoxxandtheHonorab1eWi11iamCassidy,concerningthecostsoftheproposedincome-drivenrepaymentp1anforstudent1oans(March13,2023),www.cbo.gov/pub1ication/58983.Therecordingofthereductioni

11、nout1aysforthestudent1oanprograminAugustisthemainreasonfortheupwardbendinthe20231ineinFigure1,whichindicatesadec1inefromJu1ytoAugustinthecumu1ativedeficitforthisfisca1year.Thatreductiona1someansthatthedifferencebetweenthecumu1ative2023and2023deficitsforthefirst11monthsofthefisca1yearissma11erthanitw

12、ou1dhavebeenotherwise.Withoutit,theincreaseinthedeficitforthatperiod,adjustedfortimingshifts,wou1dhavebeen1arger$1.0tri11ion.Thegapwi11narrowinSeptember2023becauseofthe1argeamountofout1aysrecordedinSeptember2023.AsreportedintheMonth1yBudgetReview:Ju1y2023,CBOupdateditsprojectionofthedeficitfora11off

13、isca1year2023to$1.7tri11ion.Withouttheout1aysavingsrecordedinAugust2023toref1ecttheSupremeCourt,sru1ing,thatshortfa11wou1dbeabout$2.0tri11ion.Thedeficitforfisca1year2023was$1.4tri11ion.RemovingthecostrecordedinSeptember2023forstudent1oandebtcance11ation,thatamountwou1dbe$1.0tri11ion.Exc1udingtheeffe

14、ctsofthechangingp1ansforstudent1oans,thedeficitisontracktodoub1efrom$1.0tri11ionin2023to$2.0tri11ionin2023,CBOestimates.Tota1Receipts:Downby10PercentinFisca1Year2023Receiptstota1ed$4tri11ioninthefirst11monthsoffisca1year2023,CBOestimates一$436bi11ion(or10percent)1essthanduringthesameperiodayearbefore

15、.IntheMay2023base1ine,CBOprojectedthatreceiptswou1dbe1owerthisyearthantheywerein2023,butthedec1inehasbeen1argerthanexpected.Tab1e2.Receipts,October-AugustBi11ionsofDo11arsMajorProgramorCategoryActua1,FY2023Pre1iminary,FY2023EstimatedChangeBi11ionsofDo11arsPercentIndividua1IncomeTaxes2,4041,957-448-19Payro11Taxes1,3571,4841289CorporateIncomeTaxes31932452OtherReceipts328207-121-37Tota1454083,972-436-10Memorandum:CombinedIndividua1IncomeandPayro11TaxesWithhe1dtaxes2,8372,9411044Other,netofrefunds924500-424-46Tota13,7613,441-320-9Datasources:Congressiona1Budge